news.am, Armenia
March 21 2010
Erdogan’s hysteria and stagnation in Armenian-Turkish process: weekly review
11:14 / 03/20/2010 Domestic policy
Major domestic political events this week centered round the
consideration of the situation in Armenia by the PACE Monitoring
Committee. The discussion once more showed antipodal opinions on the
human rights situation and democratic development in Armenia held by
the pro-government and opposition camps.
At the Monitoring Committee’s meeting in Paris, France, on March 17,
pursuant to the PACE Co-Rapporteurs’ requirements, the Armenian
authorities submitted a schedule of measures aimed at implementing the
PACE resolutions on the post-election processes in the country.
Specifically, the Armenian authorities pledged to amend the RA
Election Code by the end of this year `in order to start preparing for
new elections in 2011.’ Official Yerevan also promised to hold a
broadcasting contest this July, and the A1+ TV Company, which got its
broadcasting license revoked in 2002, will be able to participate in
the contest. The European Court of Human Rights ruled the TV company’s
rights had been violated. The Armenian authorities deliberately
postponed the relevant contests under the pretext of affording all the
TV companies an opportunity to digitize their broadcasting.
The principal opposition political force in Armenia, Armenian National
Congress (ANC), was initially sure that the authorities would submit
`half-hearted measures’ rather than a schedule of practical measures
to overcome the consequences of the 2008 domestic political crisis.
The day before the Monitoring Committee was to discuss the situation
in Armenia, the ANC held a procession of protest in Yerevan. It was an
interim event before the next republican rally scheduled for April 6.
The demonstrator handed the extra-parliamentary Opposition’s demands
over to the CE office in Yerevan. The ANC representatives stated the
ANC has its own schedule of measures. As regards the demands submitted
to the international institutions, the AC does not expect much of them
` they only contain information. As regards the ANC’s demands as such,
they were made public at the March 1 rally: renewing the A1+ TV
Company’s broadcasting license before this summer, reforming the
law-enforcement agencies and election law, appointing early
parliamentary and presidential elections for the period between June
and September 2010. It should be noted that the ANC’s last ` and the
most significant ` demand can only be met under massive rallies’
pressure. At present, such pressure is only possible in case of most
unfavorable results of the Nagorno-Karabakh peace process. The
developments are not yet following this course. So the ANC has to
`restrict itself’ to mass, but occasional rallies designed to keep the
few supporters `mobilized’ and political passions `high.’
The package of bills designed to regulate journalists’ activities
approved by the RA Parliament in its first reading evoked a serious
public response. At first sight, the law seems to have been made less
severe: libel and misinformation are viewed as an administrative
offence rather than a criminal one. However, many representatives of
civil society, experts and opposition journalists see a serious threat
to freedom of speech in the bills, as they provide for extremely high
fines for libel. The opponents are sure the new law will become a
scourge in the authorities’ hands against the newspaper out of their
control. They also refer to the state of emergency in Armenia March 1
to 20, when all the restrictions on freedom of speech applied on the
opposition media alone, while the newspaper under the authorities’
control offered their biased interpretation of the tragic events
following the presidential election.
It should be noted that the information policy of the print media
supporting both political camps needs regulating. However, with the
previous experience and the political reality considered, the bills
the ruling parties are pushing through Parliament might serve as an
instrument for struggling against the opposition newspapers. Applying
sanctions against the opposition newspapers can hardly be of any
benefit to a country under PACE’s permanent control. We should
remember, after all, that the newspapers publishing critical articles
about the statesmen of every rank are most popular in Armenia now.
This means that the public needs the information that is not normally
`on the air.’ Struggling against such newspapers may prove to be one
more headache for the authorities, with numerous scandals and appeals
to international agencies.
Nagorno-Karabakh peace process and region
Turkish Premier Recep Erdogan has been the `hero’ of the region this
week. He threatened to deport alleged100,000 illegal Armenians in
Turkey. That irresponsible statement suggests a number of conclusions
about the chief ideologists and champion of the policy of
democratizing Turkey’s public life.
The likeness the incumbent Turkish leader bears to his `small brother’
Ilham Aliyev is the first thing that strikes the eye. The Turkish
Premier has had several grave fits of hysteria since the
Armenian-Turkish normalization process was launched. During his fits
Mr. Erdogan first reminded Yerevan and the entire world of illegal
Armenian immigrants in Turkey and then threatened to deport them.
Turkish Premier kept on `whetting his voracious appetite’ ` the number
of illegal immigrants to be deported was gradually increasing from
70,000 up to 100,000. Considering Erdogan’s rhetoric, you cannot but
draw a parallel with `Turkey’s brother Azerbaijan,’ which has made it
its state policy to deliberately exaggerate the figures having to do
with the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict. Immediately after the hostilities,
Azerbaijan claimed 13% of its territories to be `occupied.’ Later the
figure was 17% and it is 20% now. The number of Azerbaijani refugees
similarly reached 1,000,000, though the Armenian troops did not make
any advance after May 1994. Considering the approaches shown by Turkey
and Azerbaijan, which are strikingly alike, you remember the saying
`scratch my back and I’ll scratch yours.’
The 15,000 illegal Armenian immigrants in Turkey are a real disgrace
for Yerevan. This is one of the results of the hard social conditions
in independent Armenia for many years, and the authorities have not so
far taken sufficient necessary measures to resolve the population’s
social problems. Turkey, for its part, should think of the
consequences deportation of thousands of Armenian citizens might have
amid the policy of zero problems with neighbors declared by official
Ankara.
Even if the 15,000 illegal Armenians immigrants are really deported,
it will not be a disaster for the country’s socio-economic life. As to
Turkey, it will certainly lose.
For several years, the ruling Justice and Development Party (JDP) has
been posing a champion of a new policy. In this context, some have
even called Erdogan a second Ataturk. But no progress has so far been
made in the country: the Kurdish problem remains unsolved, and the
Turkish Premier has shown that it is a person’s nationality that
accounts for an attitude toward him or her in `secular and democratic
Turkey’ ` he threatened to deport illegal immigrants only because they
were Armenians.
It should also be noted that Erdogan’s threats remain mere threats.
Turkey cannot make any progress in its way to the European Union (EU),
and mass deportation of even illegal immigrants will destroy the last
hopes for the country’s admission to the EU. Significant are however
the very statements that have been made now that the Armenian-Turkish
process is on the point of failing.
Both Turkish and Armenian officials have changed their tone over the
last weeks. The impression is that neither Ankara nor Yerevan has a
clear idea of their further steps in the Armenian-Turkish
normalization process. Or they are gradually revising their previously
constructive positions.
The Nagorno-Karabakh problem proved the most serious hindrance to the
normalization process. As the anniversary of the Armenian Genocide is
drawing near (the United States believes Yerevan and Ankara will make
a breakthrough in their relations on this occasion), the expert and
political statements on interrelation between the Armenian-Turkish
normalization and Nagorno-Karabakh peace processes are proving true.
In defiance of its promises to settle relations with Armenia without
any preconditions, Turkey assumed the role of hostage to Azerbaijan
Ankara has delayed the ratification of the Armenian-Turkish protocols
in the Turkish Parliament as long as possible, making a positive
decision conditional on progress in the Nagorno-Karabakh peace
process. As a result, official Yerevan’s forecast have come true `
making the two processes conditional on each other will cause both to
fail.
In any case, the only thing for us to do is to state that the
Armenian-Turkish normalization process has been stalemated due to the
combined efforts of Baku and Ankara. With the perseverance shown by
Azerbaijan and Turkey considered, we can say that the process can only
be continued if the Nagorno-Karabakh peace process shows appreciable
progress, which is hardly likely. The situation may become clearer by
the end of this month, when the OSCE Minsk Group Co-Chairs pay a new
visit to the region.
Economy and social life
This week the Armenian national currency has continued depreciating.
The process has been accompanied by a steady rise in prices for stable
goods. RA Prime Minister Tigran Sargsyan stated that a law on wage,
pension and allowance adjustment for inflation would entail inflation
risks in the country, which might cause a collapse of the state’s
macroeconomic system, According to him, legislations like that are
adopted in the countries with inflation exceeding 10%. `But in
countries like Armenia, with stable inflation, such a law would be
inadvisable,’ Sargsyan said. He stressed that the Government is now
trying to curb a price rise. `It would be more advisable to curb
inflation than adjust the population’s incomes for inflation, and the
Government is doing it now,’ the Premier said.
At his meeting with the RA Premier, President of the European Bank for
Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) Thomas Mirow made a high
appraisal of the Armenian Government’s macroeconomic policy. He
pointed out that the EBRD seriously increased its aid to the country
last year.
Armenia and Iran will sign a free trade agreement, stated Robert
Harutyunyan, Director General of the Armenian Development Agency. The
Armenian and Iranian ministries of economy were ordered to draft the
agreement at the January sitting of the Armenian-Iranian
Intergovernmental Commission. Under a prior agreement, the imported
products will be exempted from taxation. `Iran’s 80-million-strong
market is of high importance for Armenia. We have been unable to enter
this market because of the very high taxes on imports in Iran,’
Harutyunyan said.
T.P.