Azg Daily, Armenia
March 17 2010

HR252: ARMENIANS, DON’T HOLD YOUR BREATH

By Edmond Y. Azadian

Armenians around the world were euphoric, when, on March 4, the House
Foreign Affairs subcommittee voted by a narrow margin (23-22), to
adopt HR 252, a resolution to recognize the Armenian Genocide. Once
the euphoria settles down, we need to give an objective assessment of
what actually transpired in the subcommittee and what are its short-
and long-term impacts.

It is not the first time that this scenario has played out in
Washington. Actually, there were three near-misses in recent history
when the panel adopted the Genocide Resolution with even wider margin,
yet the resolution never made it to the House floor. Similar
resolutions were voted on in the subcommittee in the years 2000, 2005
and 2007, and in the latter case, the vote was 27-21 in favor of
passing the resolution.

The Clinton and Bush II administrations actively pressured the
legislators to table the resolutions.

One may ask why did Armenians vote in mass to elect President Obama,
when they knew full well that the candidate and incumbent presidents
would act differently and would renegue on their pre election pledges?

The question may be answered with another answer: what was the
alternative? Barack Obama’s moral stature, and Samantha Powers’
convincing arguments swayed many Armenians.

Remembering preceding reversals, Armenians did not have an alternative
but to go through the process to further mobilize the inactive masses,
to keep politicizing the Genocide issue and demonstrating to Turkey
that the Armenian lobby is something to be reckoned with.

Not only was the administration’s reversal predictable, but also the
Turkish government’s reaction. Turkish leaders act, react and behave
similarly in all situations.

When France adopted the Genocide Resolution, Ankara recalled its
ambassador, threatened to break a $2-billion military contract and
announced that the adoption of the Genocide law would damage
French-Turkish relations. Exactly the same scenario is being enacted
today. Yet the French government did not budge and none of the Turkish
threats were implemented. France is a relatively smaller power than
the US and has less to give to Turkey than the US.

But Ankara’s scare tactics, matched with the lobbying power of the
military industrial complex, are affecting some legislators in the US,
especially the ones looking for copouts.

The Foreign Affairs Subcommittee’s narrow vote was only the first
step. There is a long way to go and the subsequent stages will be even
more challenging than this one.

If Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, Vice President Joe Biden and
President Obama renegged on their pre-election pledges, what
assurances have we that the Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi will
prove to be more principled and less expedient than her superiors and
bring the Resoultion to the floor for a vote? She may try to place the
resolution on the House of Representatives’ agenda, only when she is
convinced that there are not enough votes for passage; that will be a
face-saving maneuver for the speaker of the House.

Thus far, we may claim a victory, albeit a small one.

What were the factors, which contributed to that victory?

– Armenians may claim their lobbying power is making headway on the
Hill. That may be considered a factor, but not a major one.

– Hillary Clinton had made the Protocols one of the centerpieces of
her foreign policy in the Middle East and the Caucasus. This vote
could force Turkey to ratify them and offer a victory for Foggy
Bottom.

– Another unspoken factor is the position of Israel and the Jewish
lobby. Already anonymous sources at Turkish Foreign Ministry are
accusing the Jewish lobby that it "did not raise a finger" to defend
Turkey.

Indeed, Prime Minister Erdogan had gone too far (at least by Israeli
estimates) by accusing Tel Aviv of committing genocide in its Gaza
raids. That policy gained dividends for the prime minister
domestically and in the Islamic world, but damaged his position in the
US.

Already voices were being raised in the Israeli press to teach a
lesson to the Turks by supporting the Armenian Genocide. And if that
lesson is learned quickly, Armenians can no longer count on the Jewish
lobby’s neutrality.

When the vote was cast in the Foreign Affairs Committee, the
sensational news was covered by all the networks. To this was added
the panic gripping the Turkish news media and politicians. That,
perhaps was even more lasting victory than the vote itself, because it
sensitized international public opinion about the Armenian Genocide
and further educated Turkish people on the issue.

Unless the majority of the people in Turkey realize that there is an
unresolved problem between the two nations and unless the
international public opinion is not focused on the issue the cause
cannot be promoted through meager means that Armenians possess
worldwide.

Armenians have gone through this process year in and year out and
recognize and anticipate all the hurdles that may come along the way.

Hillary Clinton has told the reporters that "the Obama administration
strongly opposes the resolution that was passed only by one vote in
the House Committee, and we will work very hard to make sure it does
not go to the House floor."

State Department Spokesman PJ Crowley has also told the reporters
ahead of the vote that the United States was concerned about the
impact the vote could potentially have on US-Turkish relations.
Turkey, among other things, is considered a strong American ally and
is home to a critical US air base.

Hillary Clinton, when asked in a Costa Rica press conference why she
had a change of heart and position on the Genocide issue, responded
that things have changed.

Of course these are all absurd arguments; when Obama, Biden and
Clinton spoke in favor of Genocide resolution, they knew Turkey was an
ally, that there was the Turkish base in Turkey, that war was taking
place in Iraq and Afghanistan and that any word about the Genocide
would anger Turkey. In fact, nothing has changed. The only thing which
has changed is the position of the politicians, which is not
surprising at all.

Before the election, the candidates have the habit of promising the
sky. After the elections the reality settles in and political
expediency becomes the norm.

Every time elections take place, legislators or executive branch
statesmen may change but the bureaucrats remain entrenched to carry on
the same agenda from one administration to the other, justifying that
agenda under the guise of "national interest."

With all his moral rhetoric, President Obama did not make good on many
of his promises; the moral wound that Guantanomo torture chambers
symbolize are still open, water boarding criminals are absolved,
suspected terrorist renditions are hushed, and Blackwater embezzlement
cases are no longer in the public eye. They are all compromised to
save major agenda items such as national health care and economic
recovery. Among the host of these issues, the Armenian Genocide is a
minor issue, which can be traded or trampled on with impunity.

Turkey is making a lot of fuss so that the resolution would not move
ahead. They are even talking about improving relations further with
Russia.

The Armenian press and the Armenian politicians have more or less a
subdued view of the situation, which is a déjà vu. Their main concern
is the potential war on the Karabagh front. Turks and Azeris are
building arguments that Karabagh and Armenian-Turkish negotiations are
at a stalemate to justify war.

The excitement about the HR 252 will die down soon but the exercise is
not a futile one. Every year that issue comes up in Washington more
Armenians are involved in the lobbying effort; there is more news
coverage in the US and worldwide and above all the Genocide becomes
more and more a domestic agenda for Turkey to ponder. This is the
nature of politics.

We must be convinced that persistent drops of water will eventually
pierce the rock and when the major political issues are aligned
properly we may expect a breakthrough.

Meanwhile Armenians around the world need not hold their breaths on
the adoption of HR 252 by the US Congress.