KARABAKH’S REASONABLE TIME

Lragir.am
19/03/10

The propaganda topic over the Karabakh issue settlement started
containing some remarkable nuance. Theses on the change of the format
of negotiations showed up in the foreground, and statements about
Karabakh’s participation in the talks activated at the level of
co-chairs.

Apparently, the mediators are thinking about how to invite the
Karabakh to the negotiation table. It is possible because of two main
reasons. Or very soon, Armenia and Azerbaijan will be close to an
agreement on the basic principles of Karabakh issue or Karabakh will
be invited to sign it to start discussing the details, or just they
need some new technique to continue negotiations.

The point is that Armenia-Azerbaijan format is at an impasse and has
already exhausted itself. This may be a fault of the mediators
themselves who incorrectly calculated the resources of their optimism.
The result is that optimism ran ahead of the effectiveness of
negotiations and some casus appeared, the way out of which could be
the change the format.

It is clear that the co-chairs will not touch themselves, that is the
composition of the Minsk Group will not change, especially in
conditions of economic crisis, when any job is valuable. That is why
they are thinking about changing the format of the parties. Clearly,
there is no other more comfortable candidate than Karabakh to be
brought to negotiations. In connection with this issue, there may be
problems with Azerbaijan, but they can be overcome proceeding from the
current complicated situation.

The fact is that if the negotiations reach an impasse, nothing else
will be left to Azerbaijan but to start a war. But why Aliyev needs a
war, even if the external forces allow him proceeding from sense of
guilt. It is much more convenient for Aliyev to participate in the
negotiations and from time to time to voice belligerent statements. It
does not require any extra nerves or expenses.

Perhaps the co-chairs somehow procure the involvement of the so-called
`Azerbaijani community of Karabakh’, especially that during his visit
to Baku, the OSCE Chairman-in-Office Sauadabaev met with
representatives of the `community’. So, Aliyev may well agree to the
participation in negotiations of Karabakh as a party or on its
`approach’ to the table. He can tell his society that today Karabakh
became a negotiating party, and tomorrow will come the turn of `the
Azeri community’. The passions will come down, and in this format,
negotiations can continue for another few years. If, of course, in the
new format, the co-chairs do not scatter the optimism right and left.

No accident, NKR President Bako Sahakyan visited NKR Foreign Ministry
and gave them a task in whatever was to ensure the participation of
Karabakh in the negotiations. Apparently, Bako Sahakyan got hints that
the co-chairs are not averse to an agreement on the basic principles,
or they are going to prolong the talks for several more years in the
new format. Perhaps that is why he decided to take a step, which in
any case is winning. If the co-chairs are really interested in the
participation of Karabakh, Bako Sahakyan may say tomorrow that it is
his merit: he strongly demanded that Karabakh was immediately returned
to the negotiating table. Well, if the intention of the co-chairs does
not become reality, Bako Sahakyan will not appear in danger for it,
because, unlike the Armenian-Turkish relations, Bako Sahakyan did not
define any `reasonable time’.

JAMES HAKOBYAN