APPROVAL OF TURKEY-ARMENIA PROTOCOLS GIVEN SLIM CHANCE

Today’s Zaman
March 22 2010
Turkey

The beginning of last year saw increased diplomatic traffic between
Turkey and Armenia, signaling more efforts for normalizing relations
between the two countries. But this year the world only sees harsh
statements, lack of trust and unhappy politicians from both sides
when it comes to their relations.

This time of the year has been particularly important for Turkey
considering that April 24, the day the White House traditionally issues
a statement concerning "Armenian Remembrance Day," is approaching and
concerns are increasing about whether or not US President Barack Obama,
who had previously promised that he would use the word "genocide"
in his statement on April 24 to define what happened to Armenians in
1915, will indeed do so.

However, in his first statement about what happened to Armenians in
1915 since becoming president on April 24 last year, he referred to
the atrocities as "one of the great atrocities of the 20th century"
and used the Armenian phrase "meds yeghern," which is often translated
as "great calamity." Neither Armenians nor Turks were pleased.

Turkey rejects Armenian claims of genocide at the hands of the Ottoman
Empire and says Turks and Armenians were both killed as Armenians
revolted against the Ottoman Empire in collaboration with the Russian
army for an Armenian state in eastern Anatolia.

The issue has gotten even more complicated this year as Turkey recalled
its ambassador in Washington and canceled senior-level contacts with
the US following the March 4 vote by the US House Committee on Foreign
Affairs vote endorsing the Armenian claims of genocide.

Only a week after the US vote, the Swedish Parliament endorsed a
similar resolution prompting Turkey to withdraw its ambassador in
Sweden and cancel a scheduled visit by Prime Minister Recep Tayyip
Erdogan.

The Turkish government resents the US administration for not doing
enough to block the vote out of a belief that this could pressure
Ankara to ratify two protocols pending in Parliament to normalize
ties with Armenia and wants a clear and solid message that it is
opposed to such congressional moves.

Turkey hoped to reap the benefits of having signed the protocols
with Armenia because one of them, the "Protocol on Development of
Relations," also included "an impartial scientific examination of
the historical records and archives to define existing problems and
formulate recommendations."

Sabine Freizer, Ä°stanbul-based director of the Europe Program of
the International Crisis Group, said it would be good if the Turkish
Parliament approved the protocols before April 24 "because one of the
protocols includes the establishment of a commission for an impartial
scientific examination of the historical records and archives to
define existing problems and formulate recommendations," she stated.

"Turkey’s approval of the protocols could weaken diaspora Armenians
international genocide recognition efforts. Ultimately history is an
issue for Turks and Armenians to come to terms with," she added.

To complicate matters even more, the Constitutional Court of Armenia
announced in January that the protocols were in conformity with the
Armenian Constitution, which states in its preamble that Armenia
"stands in support of the task of achieving international recognition
of the Armenian genocide."

Ankara argued that this meant Yerevan was putting unacceptable
preconditions on the implementation of the protocols. Turkey is now
waiting for a formal guarantee that the protocols are still the same
ones that they signed.

Retired Turkish Ambassador Temel Ä°skit said that expecting such
a document from Armenia was equivalent to asking it to deny its
constitution and that Armenia’s top court’s ruling was a domestic
issue. According to him, Turkey has been dragging its feet because of
its own domestic political concerns, namely the approaching general
elections and the "government’s populism."

"It’s a pity that all the hard work of the Foreign Ministry is being
wasted," Ä°skit said.

Facing fierce opposition domestically and from Azerbaijan, the Turkish
government has warned several times that it would be difficult to
pass the protocols without any progress on the Nagorno-Karabakh peace
process, although the protocols make no mention of a link between the
normalization of Turkish-Armenian ties and the peace process between
Armenia and Azerbaijan.

Turkey closed its border with Armenia in 1993 in solidarity
with Azerbaijan, which was then fighting a war with Armenia over
Nagorno-Karabakh but which ended up losing the Armenian-dominated
enclave as well as the surrounding territory — almost 20 percent
of Azerbaijan’s territory. "It is clear that Turkey will not ratify
the protocols and that as a consequence Armenia will rescind them,"
said Boris Navasardian, president of the Yerevan Press Club.

"If there were to be constructive dialogue between the parties about
the possible terms of ratification, then the deadline could be extended
beyond April 24, but we can assume such dialogue is not taking place,
as all recent official statements from both sides expose a critical
lack of trust and respect towards each other instead," he added.

According to Navasardian, the funeral of the protocols might happen
either before or after April 24, and both countries are more concerned
with how to withdraw from the process with minimal losses.