SARGSYAN IS EXPECTED TO HAVE A TOUGH VISIT TO WASHINGTON DC
Armine Avetyan

March 20, 2010

– Mr. Shahnazaryan, can we assume that after the recent developments
the protocols dedicated to normalizing Armenia-Turkey relations
are failed?

– The Armenian-Turkish relations weren’t built on these protocols. Due
to soccer diplomacy a situation is formed, by which the parties
and mediators know that this process doesn’t have a future. Now
the game is who’s going to carry the responsibility of failing the
process. The revision of the RA law on international treaties is
connected with that. The Armenian parliament will be the first to
ratify the protocols. After that Sargsyan will have to decide to recall
the protocols or not. Or they might as well call back the protocols
indeed if there is no progress in the NKR conflict resolution. And
the statements that they are going to ratify after Turkey are not
convincing. In that case why had they made a legislative amendment?

– Why was it necessary for the US Congress’s foreign relations
committee to adopt the resolution 252 in favor of recognition of the
Armenian Genocide?

– As a result of the process the US received new levers to use those
during its communication with Turkey. Currently there are various
issues in the US-Turkey relations. And of those questions is the
further process of Turkey-Iran relations, which is not beneficial for
the US. The role of Turkey in the Middle East in the peace process
in Afghanistan and Black Sea sector is also very important for the US.

The US is also concerned with the prospects of development of energetic
projects between Turkey and Russia. One of the concerning issues is
the future destiny of the US military bases in Turkey. As of resolution
252 then it is evident that there won’t be a full session of Congress
to discuss this issue. I think that once this issue is clarified the
Turkish Ambassador will return to the US. This is not the first case
that Turkey is using this step. I think that Turkey and the US will
find the way to help President Obama save his face and not to mention
the word genocide in his April 24th traditional speech.

– Thus, the role of the Armenian lobbying organizations wasn’t that
big in regard of the adoption of this resolution.

– In my deep conviction if they had invested 30-40% of these efforts
in the NKR conflict resolution we would have had tangible results. I
challenge not to ignore this and remember that we still face the NKR
conflict. If they are working with the Congressmen and are lobbying in
the direction of the genocide recognition they might as well initiate
certain steps in the favorable resolution of the NKR conflict. But
they don’t do this. Why? Because this is what’s profitable for them.

Yes, I blame them of ignoring this key issue. Azerbaijan’s advocacy
war is quite wide-spread and let us sincerely confess that the volumes
of this bring them serious results. Both the Armenian government and
the Diaspora don’t do anything in this regard and do not participate
in the information war.

– You mentioned that after this resolution the US had attained
additional levers on Turkey. But the reaction of Turkey shows that
they are not essentially pressured. Even they are doing the opposite
by threatening the US.

– We should realize that currently the US has fewer levers to pressure
on Armenia the other way around. And the Armenian-Turkish border will
not be opened as long as there is no progress in the NKR conflict
resolution. Moreover, it seems that this is the final phase of these
protocols when they are going to determine who failed the process and
who should be responsible for the failure. It is excluded that the
Turkish parliament can ever ratify the protocols without essential
change in the NKR conflict on behalf of Azerbaijan.

– If the mediators doubt the successful completion of the rapprochement
then why are they encouraging the parties to continue the process?

– Let us assume for a moment that the protocols are ratified and the
parties have started to work. Every single gathering of the historians’
commission is going to be full with scandals. Regardless of the fact
that the Armenian government is denying this Turkey and the high-rank
officials of Turkey have stated that the future of the genocide issue
can only be solved in the framework of this commission.

This means that even after ratification I strongly believe that
these protocols don’t have any practical and feasible future. This
commission will explode any process. As a result of protocols and
the process Turkey has received the most part of its wishes but the
Armenian side has only had losses. Turkey needed the process and not
the results and the Armenian government needed results. There will
be no result and I think the process won’t stretch for too long. And
the mediators are very sincere and it’s not the first year that they
are trying to resolve the existing issues and open the border. The
mediators and first of all the US overestimated these opportunities
and now they perfectly understand that the protocols cannot be the
basis of the dialog between Turkey and Armenia. On the other hand
Turkey due to its shortsighted policy instigated that the genocide
recognition process takes on positive shift.

– What results have the sides come to in the process of the NKR
conflict resolution?

– And ambiguous situation is created. First of all after and
before the Sochi meeting several functions were launched, which are
seemingly directed against the OSCE Minsk Group format. I see processes
proceeding in parallel with the Minsk Group tendencies and processes
debilitating the role of the Minsk Group. The evidence of that are
the initiatives of Iran and Kazakhstan. For me the joint initiative
of France and Russia was strange, where the name of the Minsk Group
is not mentioned. So far Armenia is not expressing any standpoint and
is incessantly adverting to the agreement made in Sochi, according to
which the sides should present written viewpoints. Also an impression
is created that Azerbaijan is doing everything to fail or annihilate
the Minsk Group format. It is very hard to draw such conclusions from
unclear statements of the Armenian government. I’d like to remind
that the Minsk Group is fist of all beneficial for us. Azerbaijan has
numerously tried to fail the Minsk Group format. Now it seems they
have switched roles. But Armenia needs to understand that even though
Azerbaijan at least tactically is supporting the Minsk process then it
will definitely benefit from the possibility of the latter’s failure.

– What is the result of these separate initiatives?

– On part of Russia I notice a process in parallel with the Minsk
Group. And in general the Turkish-Russian cooperation within the frames
of energetic, military and security projects should be worrisome for
us. And it is necessary to take adequate steps in this process. The
RA hasn’t yet expressed an opinion regarding the amended and revised
version of the Madrid principles. But I think that it will have to
do so as during the upcoming meetings with the Minsk Group co-chairs
the latter will demand that Armenia does so. A qualitative change has
been registered in the negotiations because Azerbaijan has given its
consent. As a rule, the opposite was meant to happen. And after this
the Armenian side is confused. By the way, this document was handed
to the Armenian side before the Sochi meeting. And the NKR conflict
should be viewed in the context of the Russian-American context. It is
evident that the two sides will never come to an agreement with each
other. It means that either this situation is remaining or there is
going to be a very strong Russian-American joint pressure. Or there
is the second possibility that is the war but at the moment there
is little threat for that. It is no bigger than 2-3 months ago but
I don’t exclude that this possibility may grow in the near future.

– Last week the US Department of State published the human rights
report 2009, following which Serzh Sargsyan was invited to Washington.

What is hidden behind these processes?

– I think the report is very realistic because it clearly describes
the bad situation with human rights and political prisoners in
Armenia. Following the publication of this report Serzh Sargsyan
was invited to Washington to take part in the energetic security
conference. As Washington sees that there may be no improvement in
the relations between Armenia and Turkey without an improvement in
the issue of Karabakh, I think the main efforts will be targeted at
finding a solution out of this situation around the issue of Karabakh
and returning the process to the Minsk Group. Thus they will demand
a clear position toward the new recommendations from Armenia. There
may even speak of the timeline. In other words, Sargsyan will have
a difficult visit in Washington.