CAUCASUS GOVERNMENTS SPENDING HEAVILY ON ARMS

Hurriyet, Turkey
March 25 2010

Continuous regional tensions are prompting heavy spending on weapons in
the Caucasus, according to a recent report released by the Stockholm
International Peace Research Institute, or SIPRI. Georgia, Armenia
and Azerbaijan have collectively increased their defense spending
fivefold over the past decade

ARMS: Over the past two years, Georgia, Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan and
Turkmenistan have all made significant defense procurements from
foreign suppliers. AFP photo

Georgia, Armenia and Azerbaijan have gone on a weapons spending spree
over the past decade, collectively increasing their defense spending
fivefold, according to a new study, EurasiaNet reported Wednesday on
its Web site.

Armenia increased its annual defense spending from $93 million in
1999 to $217 million in 2008, according to a report recently released
by the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute, or SIPRI,
that used constant 2005 dollars to track the figures.

Azerbaijan’s military budget rose from $133 million in 1999 to $697
million in 2008, and Georgia’s went from $39.8 million to $651 million
over the same period.

Regional tensions were the primary cause of the buildup, said the
report’s author, Paul Holtom, who directs SIPRI’s Arms Transfers
Program. "In the decade preceding the August 2008 Georgia-Russia
conflict in South Ossetia, military expenditure in Armenia, Azerbaijan
and Georgia increased by more than 500 percent in real terms,"
Holtom wrote.

"Military reform and modernization have been offered as justifications
for increased military spending and arms procurement in Armenia,
Azerbaijan, Georgia and Russia, but unresolved border disputes,
territorial claims and separatism remain among the main national
security threats facing these countries," the report said.

SIPRI tried to collect similar data on the countries of Central Asia,
but only Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan offered enough information to do
so. Kazakhstan’s defense spending increased from $206 million in 1999
to $855 million in 2008, and Kyrgyzstan’s went from $44.8 million to
$79.3 million during the same period.

Over the past two years, Georgia, Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan and
Turkmenistan have all made significant defense procurements from
foreign suppliers, according to SIPRI data; Armenia and the rest of
the post-Soviet Central Asian states did not.

Azerbaijan received 70 armored personnel carriers of the BTR-80A
variety from Russia in 2009, and arranged with South Africa’s Paramount
Groups to start producing Matador and Marauder mine-protected vehicles
in Azerbaijan. Those vehicles will likely be assembled in Azerbaijan,
and could mark the first movement toward Baku’s stated goal of creating
a domestic defense industry that can produce export-worthy military
hardware, Holtom said in an interview with EurasiaNet.

Azerbaijan’s focus on new ground vehicles and its recent purchases of
unmanned drone aircraft from Israel, combined with Baku’s increasingly
bellicose rhetoric toward Armenia, leaves little doubt that Azerbaijan
is preparing for the possibility of a renewed conflict over its lost
territory of Nagorno-Karabakh, Holtom said.

"With the rhetoric that’s been coming out in recent months, it’s clear
to what end this buildup is for, it’s Nagorno-Karabakh," Holtom said.

While Azerbaijan may have a decisive material advantage now, the key
factor in any potential conflict with Armenia would be the stance
of the Russian forces in Armenia, he added: "The Russian reaction
is going to be the key thing, with the security pact that Russia and
Armenia have, whether Azerbaijan feels if it can go for it."

Georgia has made similar purchases, with several land-vehicle buys in
2009 including 70 Ejder armored personnel carriers from Turkey and 32
tanks from Ukraine, 20 T-72s and 12 T-84s. Russia’s arms purchases –
including looking to buy drones from Israel and Mistral amphibious
attack ships from France – meanwhile suggest it was not happy with
the way the war with Georgia turned out, Holtom said. "It was perhaps
a tougher fight than they expected," he said.

Kazakhstan obtained 79 armored personnel carriers (BTR-80As) from
Russia in 2009, as well as three ANSAT light-utility helicopters
and 12 Mi-8 and Mi-17 attack helicopters, all of which were bought
in 2007. In addition, the country last year signed agreements with
Russia for 10 S-330 surface-to-air-missile air-defense systems and
Su-27, MiG-27 and MiG-23UB combat planes. Kazakhstan also completed
its acquisitions of weapons bought from Israel in 2006 and 2007,
including 18 Lynx rocket systems, six Semser 122mm self-propelled
guns and 18 CARDOM 120mm mortars for use on armored personnel carriers.

Last year, Turkmenistan bought six Smerch multiple-rocket launch
systems, 10 T-90 tanks and two Tarantul fast-attack boats for its
nascent navy. The Caspian military buildup will likely continue,
with Kazakhstan considering naval purchases as well, though Astana
appears to be looking to non-Russian sources, Holtom said.

"With Turkmenistan, it looks like they’re turning to Russia for the
naval dimension, but Kazakhstan could go to South Korea, the United
Kingdom, Spain and the United States," he said.

Kazakhstan is unique among the Central Asian states for having
implemented sound reforms of the military it inherited from the Soviet
Union, said Erica Marat, the author of a recent book on Central Asian
militaries, "The Military and the State in Central Asia." Still,
he added, Kazakhstan is likely to continue to heavily favor Russian
military equipment since it gets discount rates as a member of the
Collective Security Treaty Organization.