SEASONALITY AS VIEWED BY RA MINISTER OF AGRICULTURE

news.am
March 25 2010
Armenia

The RA National Statistical Service recently published the results
of livestock inventory in the Armenian households and commercial
enterprises as of January 1, 2010.

To tell the truth, the inventory results hardly inspire any hope for
a bright future of the Armenian livestock sector. The cattle head
showed a decrease except for swine. Specifically, the cattle head
showed a 2.4% as compared with January 1, 2009 – a 3.2% decrease in
the number of cows, 8.6% decrease in the number of sheep and 8.9%
decrease in the number of goats.

Some experts accounts for this decrease by a poor level of the
Armenian veterinary service. Evidence thereof is the recent outburst
of cattle plague, which caused a loss of swine. Two years ago, about
15,000 swine were slaughtered. According to the latest information,
the plague killed 44 swine in the Tavush region, and 302 had to be
slaughtered for the disease to be stopped.

The livestock population is also affected by the recent active export
of cattle to Iran. Specifically, the exports of live animals and
animal produce totaled U.S. $0.4 this January – an increase of 82.2%
as compared with last January. This figure may well reach several
million dollars by the end of this year.

As regards the export of sheep to Iran (the product is in great demand
in the country), RA Minister of Agriculture Gerasim Alaversyan made
an interesting comment. According to him, it does not constitute any
threat to the sheep head in Armenia – their number may even double in
a year! At a rough estimate, with such a high reproduction rate, the
head sheep would reach several million in Armenia within a few years.

Unfortunately, however, for some "unknown" reasons, it did not happen.

On the contrary, the head of sheep decreased down to 511,000.

As regards the rise in beef prices, Mr. Alaverdyan explained it by
seasonality. Let us, however, compare the prices this January-February
with those in the corresponding period last year. The beef price
showed a rise of 15.5%, and the mutton price by as much as 68.5%. To
compare, the index of poultry price is 103.7% — a rise of 3.7%. So
the Minister’s "seasonality factor" has failed…