AZERBAIJAN CAN CUT US OFF GAS IN RESPONSE TO OPENING LARSI CHECKPOINT

Versia, Tbilisi, Georgia
March 5 2010

Maia Misheladze’s interview with Soso Tsiskarishvili [translated
from Georgian]

The Larsi checkpoint has been opened. The border has already been
crossed by nine people. EU Chairman and Foreign Minister of Spain
Miguel Angel Moratinos has visited Larsi. He recognized Georgia’s
territorial integrity and said that the checkpoint will be monitored by
the EU too. In case Russia demonstrates aggression in [the bordering]
Qazbegi [District], the "observer" will be worried and, as a result,
will offer us a several-point agreement straightaway…

In fact, opening of the Larsi checkpoint resulted in opening the lungs,
main artery and respiratory system of the Armenian economy. And the
main throat specialist in this case was neighbouring Georgia. But we
seem to have forgotten our neighbour -Azerbaijan and the big risks
that the opening of the Larsi border might cause. The economic effect
equal naught, i.e. zero, to make it clearer for our European friends
as the Russians did not even utter a word about importing Georgian
produce to Russia once the border is opened.

Versia spoke to Soso Tsiskarishvili, expert in economic issues and
founder of the Independent Experts’ Club.

Azeri "hatred" likely to outbalance Armenian "love"

[Tsiskarishvili] The arguments of those who try to please the
authorities and in this way rehabilitate the idea of opening the
Larsi checkpoint are really poor. Armenia will love us better – is
the main motivation. I understand that given the geographic isolation
and no direct communication with its patron, Armenia really needs
support. In this regard, Georgia’s support is important, but it is also
interesting to know what Armenia’s contribution to the border opening
was. If instead we are going to get peace and quietude in Javakheti
[a Georgian region predominantly populated by ethnic Armenians], it
means that Georgia is a victim of the Javakheti blackmail. It means
that the Armenian state is capable of calming down the dissatisfaction
in Javakheti or vice versa – give it publicity. However, I do not
really find it to be the situation. But, in the South Caucasus, we
[Georgians and Armenians] are not alone.

I am sure that sooner or later, when Azerbaijan is informed about
the fact that the Larsi checkpoint has been crossed by some military
infrastructure, not to mention weapons, it will re-consider its
relations with Georgia. If the Larsi checkpoint starts servicing
Armenian and Russian troops, I am not sure Armenian love will
outbalance the possible Azeri hatred. It looks as if Azerbaijan has
disappeared from the map for some reason. That is why, when speaking
about Larsi and Armenia, our experts choose not to mention Azerbaijan.

A week’s protest from Azerbaijan resulting in cutting Georgia off gas
will hold the Georgian authorities particularly responsible before
their people.

Larsi opening only result of Geneva talks

The fact that the international community is positive about opening
the checkpoint does not mean that the Georgian side should not have
asked, say, OSCE to monitor both sides of the border. Russia would not
like it, is the response. If the Russians cannot put up with about 40
OSCE representatives, it means that they do not care about opening
the border or Armenia. The international community would understand
that legal crossing of the border is not Russia’s priority.

[Versia] What if Georgia asked for the OSCE support now?

[Tsiskarishvili] It should have been done earlier. And it should have
been a principal precondition which Armenia should have agreed to.

Armenia could have even been the initiator of the issue. Had Armenia
and Georgia asked for the border’s security, there would have been
more chances to tell Russia: it is your neighbour Georgia and your
partner Armenia that demand the security of the border, and it is
you who does not want to open the border. Everyone would have seen
it. The enthusiasm with which foreign diplomacy approves of the border
opening is caused by the fact that they see this event as the result
of their hard and long work. From the international point of view,
the Geneva talks have not been followed by any other positive fact.

The only question that gives me hope is the statement made by the
Spanish Foreign Minister [Miguel Angel Moratinos] in Larsi. He said
that his visit was motivated by the EU’s intention to consider the
question of security of this section of the border. In this case
the EU will get a completely different picture as now, when the
border is open, it is impossible to talk to Russia about any kind of
international monitoring at all. At best, from the Georgian side,
there will be people armed with khabizgins [kind of pie typical of
the area]. No other weapons will be allowed there. As for the other
side of the border, the Larsi checkpoint will be controlled by armed
Russian frontier guards and cut-throat Ossetian hordes, which are ready
to settle down in Qazbegi District, and as they say, return their land.

Meanwhile, the Qazbegi District population is left without support.

Distribution of Russian passports is increasing, and the only hope for
part of the population is Russia. Do things like these necessarily
need OSCE involvement? I do not want to sound impolite, but all we
need to solve these problems is brains and clear conscience.

[Rezonansi] What can the authorities do to avoid the threats?

Authorities obliged to help Qazbegi socio-economic development

[Tsiskarishvili] They should stop talking about seven-star hotels and
make efforts to help socio-economic development of Qazbegi District.

First of all, the authorities should make the processes they are
involved in transparent because since the war [in 2008] the authorities
have been practising behind-the-scenes cooperation, which will not
result in anything beneficial.

They will speak a lot about [former prime minister] Nogaideli’s
and [former speaker] Burjanadze’s visits to Russia, but meanwhile
will give the Inguri power station to Russia as a present. Lots of
similar facts can be easily found everywhere. Let us have a look at
the tenders held and the responsibilities held. It makes no difference
what the "birth-certificates" of the newly established companies say:
Switzerland or France, as in most cases their "parents" are Russian
and their "godparents" are Georgian. That is why, in politics, when it
comes to serious security issues, the authorities should find their
people like-minded companions-in-arms. However, when authorities
choose to act secretly, it means that the authorities are acting out
of their own interests.

When it comes to territorial integrity and the risk of re-starting
war, the authorities have no right to take any irrational decisions
without holding a large-scale dialogue with the people.

[Rezonansi] Do you think that opening of the Larsi checkpoint was an
irrational decision?

[Tsiskarishvili] I tell you what – the authorities are not able to
deal with the issue by themselves. Together with the people, the
authorities can be successful even if they manage to realize what
the true situation is. We should not think that Larsi [checkpoint]
is the only problem in the South Caucasus. Unfortunately, we are
witnesses of Russia’s creeping annexation [of Georgia]. Why did the
authorities fail to find out who had exploded the bridge in Racha
near the [Georgian-Russian] border? When things like this are done
by the authorities, they find it best to keep silent as if no-one is
able to see anything.

[Rezonansi] The question I am going to ask really frightens me: do
you think that after Abkhazia and Tskhinvali, Qazbegi is going to be
annexed too?

Russian annexation of Qazbegi possible

[Tsiskarishvili] It is quite possible that one day, Russia will declare
that there have been facts of genocide among the "citizens of Russia"
[living in Qazbegi], or will say that the [Russian] frontier guards
have been attacked. This is more realistic than opening of the Larsi
checkpoint.

[Rezonansi] What might be the economic benefits of opening the Larsi
checkpoint?

[Tsiskarishvili] From the economic point of view, it is not important
because the Russian side has never said that the road is being opened
in order to import Georgian goods into Russia. Russia has not offered
any warming of the relations beneficial for Georgia. The situation
has been the same since the early1990s. It means that Russia is only
demanding, and, unfortunately, always getting what it wants without
having to compromise in response.

[Rezonansi] And what is most important, we "forgot" about Azerbaijan
and the risks related to opening the Larsi checkpoint.

[Tsiskarishvili] Speaking about Azerbaijan, we should remember our
neighbours in the North Caucasus, their religion and the reaction
they might have in case Georgia happens to participate in the
Russian-Armenian aggression against Azerbaijan.