Yeni Musavat, Azerbaijan
March 16 2010

Topical: Azerbaijan is being pushed to a capitulation

Five districts and 13 villages of Lacin will be
liberated…Mammadyarov revealed secrets of the Madrid Principles

A solution to the conflict depends on Ilham Aliyev

For the first time yesterday Azerbaijani Foreign Minister Elmar
Mammadyarov revealed details of the updated Madrid principles on the
Nagornyy Karabakh conflict. At a briefing after the meeting with the
president of the Parliamentary Assembly of the Organization for
Security and Cooperation in Europe [OSCE PA], Joao Soares, Mammadyarov
said that official Baku accepts the Madrid Principles as the basis for
the future talks and for the preparation of a great peace treaty: "We
are analysing the Madrid proposals and think that the updated Madrid
Principles, submitted in Athens, are paving the way for taking next
steps and starting the activities on a great peace treaty," he said.
(APA)

The minister believes that any conflict can be resolved
diplomatically: "The Prague process has been underway for six years,
and over the last two years, the presidents and foreign ministers have
had several meetings, the mediators have repeatedly been to the region
and the Madrid Principles have been submitted in a new option.
Azerbaijan is ready to accept the document in general. This shows that
Azerbaijan has chosen a diplomatic way for the resolution of the
conflict and we are proceeding along this path. Let Armenia announces
whether or not it adopts this option, after it, we will make public
our next steps. The Foreign Ministry is discussing and considering
various options, forms and ways of taking the negotiations further."

The process has been under way for six years

Recalling that the Prague process started in 2004, the minister said
it is a stage-by-stage process and everything is stipulated in the
Madrid document. This document states the sequence and types of steps
to be taken, Mammadyarov said. Under the document, Armenia should
first pull its troops out of five districts and 13 villages of Lacin
District. Once this happens, all the borders and communication lines
are opened, a donor conference is held, lands, communication lines are
restored, programmes are implemented as the security problems of
returning refugees are very important, the issue of international
observers are solved from security standpoint, then troops are
withdrawn from Lacin and Kalbacar, and all roads are opened.

"Once the Azerbaijani community is back to Karabakh, there will be an
opportunity to launch the final phase the process of establishing
Karabakh’s status. The establishment of Karabakh’s status is very
important for Azerbaijan. Karabakh is an Azerbaijani land, it is
certainly wrong that a part of Azerbaijani territory secedes from its
administrative control. Of course, we are stating that all the issues
should be decided within the territorial integrity of Azerbaijan. As
for the issue of self-determination, this issue is also an integral
part of international law. However, this does not mean that the issue
of territorial integrity may be violated. We have said repeatedly that
there are different autonomies and statuses in the world. For
instance, Tatars, Bashkirs in the Russian Federation have achieved
their self-determination, but within the Russian Federation," the
minister said.

Mammadyarov added that if Armenia withdraws its troops from the
occupied lands step by step, the region will encounter great
opportunities both economically and security standpoint: "No-one can
take lands anywhere, whether you want it or not, you have to have a
proper policy with neighbours. As the foreign minister of Azerbaijan,
I believe that this is the most important and the best process. We
have also to remove the issue of the occupied territories and the IDPs
from the negotiating table. The quicker this takes place the better,
and war rhetoric will be redundant. The war rhetoric exists first of
all for the reason that there are problems of the occupied lands and
the IDPs."

What have been changed in the Kremlin-drafted plan?

As also confirmed by the Azerbaijani foreign minister, the updated
option of the Madrid Principles stipulates that the status of Nagornyy
Karabakh be established in the final stage. Nevertheless, although
Mammadyarov spoke about all the stages of the regulation process, he
did not say how this final stage will be realized. If we believe in
what official Baku says, the final status issue is intended to be
solved through talks.

However, the real situation is that both the old and the updated
option of the Madrid Principles stipulate establishing the status of
the region through a referendum. As Mammadyarov confirmed, the talks
on this principle has been going on since 2004. The Kremlin is the
author of the idea of establishing the final status of the Nagornyy
Karabakh through a referendum in the final stage.

This plan was worked out at the administration of the Russian
president in 2004, and was submitted to Azerbaijani President Ilham
Aliyev and then president of Armenia Robert Kocharyan at the Astana
summit of the CIS [the Commonwealth of Independent States].

The document was later agreed with other co-chairs of the OSCE Minsk
Group, and handed over to the sides after being transformed into the
Madrid Principles following certain stages of the talks. Mammadyarov’s
statement also enables us to come up with forecasts on what new
principles are in the updated Madrid Principles. It emerges that the
updated option envisages the liberation of 13 villages of Lacin
District in addition to five districts agreed under the previous
document.

However, the minister’s statement raises slight doubts that the Madrid
Principles are envisaging the establishment of the final status of
Nagornyy Karabakh after the liberation of Lacin and Kalbacar
districts. It is possible that this aspect is being aired by official
Baku, that is to say, the plan, submitted to the sides in the talks,
does not stipulate this.

As the Azerbaijani foreign minister said Armenia has not yet made
clear its position on the updated Madrid Principles. This issue will
be discussed in Paris at a meeting between Armenian Foreign Minister
Edvard Nalbandyan and the co-chairs. As reported, over the recent
days, France and Russia have had intensive talks over the updated
Madrid Principles.

Is official Baku manoeuvring?

As said, Azerbaijan has accepted the peace plan for the talks which
envisages the establishment of Nagornyy Karabakh’s status through a
referendum. We wonder, could it be assessed as a capitulation of the
Azerbaijani authorities? After all, the outcome of the referendum, to
be held in Nagornyy Karabakh, is a foregone conclusion.

Ariel Cohen, prominent American expert, senior research fellow with
the Heritage Foundation, who is well-versed in details of the Karabakh
talks and was involved in one of the meetings of the presidents last
year, said the referendum agreed to by official Baku meant that
Nagornyy Karabakh would be handed over to Armenia.

If this is the case, there remains no doubt that the on-going talks
are pushing Azerbaijan to the capitulation. However, under the
existing situation, it may seem that Baku is manoeuvring. If a
specific time limit is not set for the referendum in Nagornyy Karabakh
and it is planned to hold the referendum for the establishment of the
region’s final status once after Azerbaijanis return and settle in
there, then Armenia would not accept this peace proposal.

Armenia wants a guarantee for Nagornyy Karabakh in advance before
agreeing to the liberation of the adjacent districts. It is well-known
that there have been discussions more than once over the conduct of
the referendum in five or 10 years. However, it would be an
inescapable capitulation for official Baku to agree to this time
frame.

Consequently, it is assumed that Azerbaijan has accepted the peace
proposal, knowing that it would be turned down by Armenia in order to
get upper hand in diplomacy as well as prevent external pressure it
has come under over the Karabakh conflict. Theoretically, even if
Armenia agrees to the option in question, there are opportunities to
delay the referendum for dozens of years.

"A solution of the conflict depends on Ilham Aliyev"

In the meantime, the president of the Parliamentary Assembly of the
Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE PA), Joao
Soares, said that a solution to the Nagornyy Karabakh conflict lies
with Azerbaijan and its President Ilham Aliyev.

It is the first time that international mediators issue an irrevocable
statement and indicate Azerbaijan and its president as the sides from
whom the resolution of the conflict depends. "I hope the political
leaderships of the both sides will demonstrate political courage for
the adoption of this decision this year. Very resolute steps should be
taken. I hope President Ilham Aliyev will take this resolute step and
with this he will not only go down in history of the region but also
the world as the man enabling the resolution of the Nagornyy Karabakh
problem."

We wonder what does Soares want to say with this? How could it be
possible that a resolution of the conflict does not depend on the
occupying side, but on the side whose territories have been occupied?
These questions have a single answer: The West and its structures want
to make Azerbaijan and its president to get rid of Nagornyy Karabakh;
wide-ranging options are being resorted to succeed in this and
pressure is given the go-ahead when tempting options fail to be
successful. And they have already been given the go-ahead…[

[translated from Azeri]