news.az, Azerbaijan
March 27 2010
Azerbaijan and Armenia have no incentive to fight again – analyst
Sat 27 March 2010 | 15:33 GMT Text size:
Douglas W. Blum News.Az interviews Douglas W. Blum, Professor of
Political Science, Providence College.
It seems that US has been playing a less active role at the
post-soviet area after the Russian-Georgian war in 2008. Do you agree
with this? And what was the result of this war for the West?
Yes, I think this is correct ` the reason is the Obama
administration’s effort to `reset’ relations with Russia. The Georgia
war was considered very embarrassing and ill-advised, and of course it
further strained US-Russian relations.
US and Russia are the main mediators in the settlement of
Nagorno-Karabakh conflict between Azerbaijan and Armenia. Are they
really able to cooperate in solving of this conflict?
I cannot comment on this question. My only impression is that the role
of Turkey ` and US as well as Russian efforts to strengthen relations
with Turkey ` are really the key factor.
How could you comment an opinion that Russia (which is afraid of close
cooperation between Azerbaijan from one side and EU and NATO from the
other side) is not interested in Karabakh settlement?
There may be some truth to this, in the sense that while both
countries are in conflict, each of them remains more dependent on good
relations with Russia. But again, this is not a topic I follow
closely.
Turkey has been playing very active role during last two years trying
to bring peace and stability to the South Caucasus. Do you believe in
success of this mission and is it in the interest of the US and
Russia?
I suspect that Turkey can indeed powerfully promote stability by
reconciliation with Armenia. Ultimately I do believe that such
stability is in the interests of all regional and global actors.
Iran proposes its mediatory in resolving of Karabakh conflict. How
could you estimate the potential role of Iran in establishing the
peace and stability in the region?
I am deeply skeptical that Iran can – or even wishes to ` promote
peace and stability in the region. Rather, Iran’s major concern is to
break out of its relative isolation, and thereby to increase its
potential integration in global FDI and energy markets. However, in my
opinion the outcome of Iran’s greater role would be a decrease in
regional and global security, because of the Iranian regime’s
rejection of key international norms and institutions.
Do you believe in possibility of new war in the Caspian region (for
example between Russia and Georgia or Azerbaijan and Armenia or US
invasion against Iran)?
Possible? Yes. Likely? No. I think Georgia has learned a painful
lesson, and that Russia has also learned that it’s aggressive reaction
was not successful diplomatically. Azerbaijan and Armenia have no
incentive to fight again, and in fact both have much to lose from
another conflict. And at least while Obama is president, the US will
not undertake unilateral military action against Iran ` unless Iran
does something extremely reckless (which I also believe is unlikely).
Aliyah Fridman
News.Az
From: Emil Lazarian | Ararat NewsPress