ARMENIANS MAY PROVOKE WAR OVER KARABAKH

Day.Az
March 24 2010
Azerbaijan

About three years ago I was chatting with a military expert from a
country in the west who was an officer of an alliance of some kind,
not just an ordinary soldier, but someone who was certainly well
informed. He spent a long time complaining about "militarism". The
whole dreariness of the world community, which was supposedly
completely and utterly objective in its mediation and its desire to
resolve the Karabakh problem, was presented in all its glory.

We, of course, know that one of a journalist’s main qualities should
be to have an almost child-like curiosity. Looking at the expert
with all the innocence of the eyes of a 30-year old, I asked him:
"So, if there is going to be a war, who will win?" His reply came as
a surprise, even to me. He claimed that Azerbaijan had a minimum of
tens of thousands of assault troops (a precise number exists, but
I will maintain a discreet silence on that score), who are trained
at the highest level and could within two weeks reach the Armenian
border from the unoccupied part of Agdam or Fuzuli districts, unless,
of course, they were ordered to advance further. Let me repeat,
I am not talking about a regular army, but trained assault troops,
to whom it would not be appropriate to extend the principle "One at
altitude against five attackers from below".

I re-checked my companion’s information at official level. After the
usual silence it was later confirmed by independent experts and even
those who showed opposition at most to the authorities and at least
to the Defence Ministry.

I will not itemize all of Azerbaijan’s armaments and weaponry. It
was enough to have been in last year’s parade in Azadliq Square [in
Baku], but even then by no means everything was shown and not the
most terrible weapons. After all, the parade was for our benefit,
and not the Armenians. But recently I have come to understand the
hysteria of the Armenians with regard to "Azerbaijan’s bellicose
statements". But what can they do after all, the threat is a real,
a tangible one, so to speak.

Armenian war preparations

I wrote recently that the Armenians have been busy digging trenches in
Karabakh. Let me repeat, this information is 100-per cent accurate. An
Armenian counterpart, who has perfectly good eyesight, has seen this
new line of defence for himself. He said the reason for it was because
the Armenians are preparing to repel an attack, whereas I believe the
Armenians are preparing to de-occupy Azerbaijani territories. Whose
prediction will be proved true is a 50-50 question, but I would go
for mine.

The other day the [Armenian] Hraparak newspaper wrote that they
are busy preparing for war in Nagornyy Karabakh. It said that all
young people who had reached adulthood had already undergone medical
examinations, the basements of local hospitals had been cleared out
and beds laid out, first-aid medicines were being purchased and the
population was stocking up on food and water.

Those who agree with the idea of a forthcoming de-occupation believe
that the Armenian leaders are scaring all and sundry about a possible
war, so that if territories are returned the people can breathe easily:
the danger is over, peace is the main thing, is what they are saying.

More subtle specialists and near-experts believe that by declaring a
"patriotic war", in which not just the regular army will take part, but
the population as well, official Yerevan is covering up its inevitable
defeat should hostilities break out. The idea is that it would not be
[Armenian President Serzh] Sargsyan and the military junta as a whole
who would be defeated, but the whole nation. Another excuse for 95
years of mourning [since the 1915 Armenian genocide]?

They are tying to say that the Armenians are innocent, and all this
is the devilry of "cruel monsters" who beat the beautiful and the
misunderstood. So long as Sargsyan is in power a solution to the
conflict exists.

It was here that the experts analysing the "preparation for war"
apparently concluded their suppositions and restricted their
predictions. But I will venture to go further.

Not "hot air"

First, (proceeding from what has already been said), the Armenians do
have something and someone to fear. Azerbaijan’s "aggressive rhetoric"
is by no means just hot air. If they didn’t know, they wouldn’t be
afraid; if they weren’t afraid, they wouldn’t spread slander.

Secondly, at this precise moment we and the Armenians have reached the
crossroads: it’s either peace or war. We will decide this year. Time
is short.

Thirdly, aware of all this, the Armenian generals may turn to
provocation. We have always considered the option of a possible attack
by our troops on the occupying forces, but it is rare that anyone
contemplates the option of a strike from the other side. But it is a
real possibility. It cannot be ruled out that the Armenians will turn
to provocation. Of course, they are not guaranteed military success,
but the talks will be wrecked. And the junta, which has gorged itself
on a war, might choose this path, whether led by President Sargsyan
or without him.

Let us at least assume they will experiment. This very same officer
of the alliance claimed that within another week, that is a total of
three from the start of an attack, our troops could be in Yerevan. We
will speak about the CSTO [Collective Security Treaty Organization]
next time.