AZERBAIJANI POLITICAL ANALYST: ARMENIA IS LIKE AN UNLUCKY STUDENT WHO IS CONSTANTLY TRYING TO CATCH UP

Today
March 30 2010
Azerbaijan

Day.Az interview with political analyst at Azerbaijan-based Lider TV
Tofiq Abbasov.

Can some progress be expected in the Armenia-Turkey normalization
in a run up to April 24, remembrance day of the so-called "Armenian
genocide"?

I think nothing significant will happen in resolution of the
Nagorno-Karabakh conflict till April 24th. Armenia will still pursue
a policy of delays in order to survive this date and to achieve a
certain psychological edge over Azerbaijan and Turkey.

There will be no significant changes in the Turkish-Armenian
relations, too. Armenians will get together to honor the memory of
the separatists, and then things will return to normal. There can be
some progress in terms of harmonization of issues related to a joint
commission of historians. But I personally do not believe that this
commission will meet, and will be able to decide on the events of
1915. This process is more likely to be ephemeral, since Armenia is
not interested in revealing historical truth. The West is not also
interested in this because it together with Russia was a direct
sponsor of the rebellion of Armenians in the Ottoman Empire.

I your opinion, will U.S. President Barack Obama utter the word
"genocide" in his annual address to the Armenian Diaspora prior to
April 24?

I dont think he will. He, i believe, will use streamlined phrases.

Obama does not need to strain relations with Turkey, since the
administration of the White House makes a big stake on Ankara in
its eastern policy. Besides, given failure of Mitchell’s Middle East
mission and that Israeli tanks re-enter the Palestinian territories,
the United States will not disturb the potential opponents.

Washington has plans to use the Turkish segment to address several
regional issues at once. I am referring to the crisis around Iran, and
the problem of restoring dialogue with Syria, raising its credibility
not only in Arabic, but also in the Muslim world. Precisely because
of this Obama is set to a delicate harmony in the Armenian question.

In your opinion, what implications the moves by some parliaments to
recognize the "Armenian genocide" lately may have?

I think that most of the blame rests with Turkey for this problem. It
should have long used historical materials to shed light on what
happened at the beginning of last century.

We are all aware that the issue of "genocide" is kind of a political
bludgeon in the hands of the Western world in order to keep Turkey
and all Muslim countries in the grip of ideological and psychological
pressure to prevent them from maneuvering on the fields which tend
to be dominated by Western countries.

I think Turkey dont have to worry about this. Let these countries
adopt these hollow resolutions. And what’s next? Nothing terrible
will happen. The West must understand that the pressure in such a
way will not bring a good result. This is a not a promising policy.

Turkey must prove that the fuss over the "genocide" is nothing more
than a hypocritical game and this kind of blackmail, fabricated in
the past by the British intelligence and the Tsarist secret police of
Russia, is reminiscent of political technologies of the colonial era.

Unfortunately, they still continue to play the role of a stumbling
block to improvement of the international climate.

Recently Armenian President appealed to Azerbaijan to sign a treaty
on no-force use. What is the true reason behind Sargsyan’s appeal?

The Armenian side is now making several seemingly disparate efforts
in order to show that it seeks a peace with Azerbaijan. It is trying
to instill community that Azerbaijan demonstrates taciturnity and
tends to use force. So, what actually happens?

On one hand, Armenia states it is ready to discuss the updated Madrid
principles, but on the other hand, it argues that the fundamental
provisions of this package are not suitable enough.

Armenian president in his recent interview admitted that Armenia can
compromise with Azerbaijan, if Azerbaijan clarifies the situation
with the status of Nagorno-Karabakh. On one hand, he is ready to
discuss the Madrid principles the first item of which stipulates
withdrawal of all troops from occupied Azerbaijani territories which
will determine the process of determining status of the region.

In the meantime, Armenia offers to sign a nonaggression treaty with
Azerbaijan. You cannot run ahead of the locomotive. The Armenian side
however, is trying to do just that.

The Armenian opposition has become especially active lately. It
makes strange statements claiming that even the territories around
Nagorno-Karabakh should not be returned. They raise the question
about the change of power in the country.

It seems to me that all this is controlled by Serzh Sargsyan’s team.

It artificially foments political situation claiminmg that Azerbaijan
has real plans to solve the conflict by force. Sargsyan throws dust in
eyes of OSCE Minks Group mediators and Western countries and introduced
himself to external forces as peace-loving, but in response Armenia os
experiencing excessive pressure from the destructive-minded internal
and external forces.

In your view, what can the scenario of events related to resolution
of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict and Turkey-Armenia normalization be
after April 24?

I think the Armenian leaders sooner or later will have to deal with
the facts. It’s impossible to ignore that all alternatives, even
hypothetical ones have been eliminated. Their constant efforts to
seek foreign patrons have failed.

Armenia is like an unlucky student who is constantly trying to catch
up. The reason is that the Armenian diplomacy is experiencing very
serious difficulties both on Turkish and Azerbaijani fronts.

But the moment when Yerevan will have to negotiate with Azerbaijan
and Turkey is not far off. Armenia will be forced to accept conditions
dictated by reality.
From: Baghdasarian