TURKEY, ARMENIA CAN IMPROVE TIES ‘WITHOUT KARABAKH SETTLEMENT’

news.az
March 29 2010
Azerbaijan

Paul Kubicek News.Az interviews Paul Kubicek, chair of the Department
of Political Science, Oakland University, Michigan.

What are the main threats to stability in the South Caucasus and to
the region’s integration into Europe?

There remain numerous sources of instability in the region, not
the least of which is the situation in Georgia and the uncertainty
about the status of Abkhazia and South Ossetia. While I would not
expect Georgia to attack the Russian positions, I do not think the
international community will recognize the independence of these
regions and I expect the Russians to remain there. As for Azerbaijan,
the continued struggle to resolve Nagorno-Karabakh remains a major
problem, of course, even if the fighting is less pronounced than it
once was.

As for European integration, those states that want to cooperate
with the EU can do so within the European Neighbourhood Policy, which
could bring aid and access to European markets. However, I doubt any
of the states will become a candidate country in the near future.

How would you describe Turkey’s regional role?

Turkey wants to assume a more pronounced international role and to
have good relations with all its neighbours. The opening to Armenia,
the Baku-Ceyhan pipeline, and Turkish diplomacy on Iran demonstrate
this. However, I do not think Turkey is strong or credible enough to
forge peace settlements, e.g. between Georgia and Russia. However,
I expect Turkish investment and involvement to remain very visible.

Armenia still demands recognition of ‘genocide’ from Turkey and
the international community. As a result, the normalization process
between Turkey and Armenia seems to have stopped. How do you see the
future of bilateral relations?

This is a very difficult question. Ideally, middle ground could be
found, maybe one that would stop short of using the word genocide
but still acknowledging the great loss of life of Armenians. I think
the Turkish government and the Armenian government were very brave to
open normalizing relations, because there is opposition in to it in
both countries. Perhaps if scholars on both sides could take a lead
in fostering dialogue and research, this would help.

Azerbaijan talks about a direct link between Armenia-Turkish relations
and a Karabakh settlement. What is your opinion?

I can understand the position of Baku, but Turkey may want to
demonstrate good relations with Armenia as it eyes EU membership. I can
imagine Turkey and Armenia improving ties without a final settlement
of Karabakh.