ON THE MILITARY ARMENIAN-AZERBAIJANI CONFLICT; PROBABILITY OF RESTARTING OF NEW HOSTILITIES IS GROWING IN THE REGION
by WPS observer
WPS Agency, Russia
DEFENSE and SECURITY (Russia)
March 29, 2010 Monday
It seems that a new military conflict is possible in the South
Caucasus. It will evidently be initiated by Azerbaijan that believes
that Armenia retains 20% of its territory illegally. Negotiations
between Baku and Yerevan on resolving of the conflict do not reach any
progress. Along with this, the parties increase their defense potential
(see the table). After Georgia they are leaders in the armament race
in the region. In 2010 Armenia will spend 4.07% of the GDP on defense
and Azerbaijan will spend 3.95% of the GDP. Along with this, in 2009
Azerbaijan had the biggest economic growth (almost by 10%) among
the CIS countries. In Armenia decrease of the GDP was the biggest
in the CIS (almost by 15%). At first glance, the logic of events
and circumstances in such situation prompts that combat operations
of a stronger state against a state weakened by the global crisis
will be successful. In our opinion, such conclusion is not obvious
in reality. There are many factors that can hinder and hinder the
militarist plans of the conflicting parties.
Military expenses of Azerbaijan and Armenia between 2008 and 2010
At this point it is necessary to remark that the table presents
the figures without the data on military aid to these counties and
so-called indirect military expenses of the allies. It is necessary to
bear in mind that the military potential of Armenia is supplemented
by the armed forces of Nagorno-Karabakh. According to experts, the
aggregate expenses of these two countries are not less than $600
million per year.
Petrodollars and establishment of the military industry of Azerbaijan
(the country organized a relevant ministry having its own budget not
included into expense on national defense), as well as the significant
mobilization reserve created in the last few years enable authorities
of this country to increase its military potential estimated at
$3-4 billion or 9-10% of the GDP even further in case of beginning
of hostilities.
Recently, Prime Minister of Azerbaijan Artur Rasi-zade announced
that in the last three years investments in development of defense
industry of Azerbaijan amounted to $500 million. According to the
Prime Minister, new enterprises have been established in Azerbaijan
and modern technologies are used in production. The Prime Minister
remarked, "At present, Azerbaijan produces 350 kinds of defense
products and has signed documents on defense cooperation with 28
countries including training of personnel." According to the Prime
Minister, in the last few years the armed forces of Azerbaijan were
seriously strengthened and supply of hardware to them reached a
qualitatively new level.
Is Azerbaijan prepared to restart hostilities in the near future? Here
are only some of the answers to this question voiced by Azerbaijani
politicians and officials lately:
President of Azerbaijan Ilham Aliyev:
– We do not hide this. We live in conditions of a war. It is not
accidental that the main part of our state expenses is dedicated
to defense purposes. After resolving of the Armenian-Azerbaijani
conflict in Nagorno-Karabakh there will be no need for such big
defense expenses but there is a big need for them today. We will
increase defense expenses every year, will strengthen the army and
will buy new weapons. We need the armed forces of Azerbaijan to be
able to fulfill the order of the Supreme Commander-in-Chief at any
moment in a short period of time. This is our sovereign right and we
do not need advisors in this.
Prime Minister of Azerbaijan Artur Rasi-zade:
– The President of Azerbaijan has frequently emphasized that
Nagorno-Karabakh will never be separated from Azerbaijan and does
not rule out possibility of military solving of the problem if the
peace talks are not successful. That is why we worked very much
on improvement of defense capability of the country, control over
the borders, supply of modern military hardware and improvement of
material and technical base of the servicemen.
Presidential aide for security and defense issues Lieutenant General
Vahid Aliyev:
– Azerbaijani army is ready for fulfillment of all tasks set for it.
We are fully prepared both from the standpoint of combat and moral
training and from the standpoint of new modern armament.
Against the background of such statements some mass media reported that
"emissaries from Baku are collecting money from Azerbaijani traders and
businessmen in Moscow for war." Last autumn, the Azerbaijani Embassy
in Moscow called on the compatriots to return to the Motherland and
to be ready to defend integrity of the state. It is quite likely that
official Baku views hostilities as something inevitable.
OSCE was alarmed by this trend. Recently, Goran Lenmarker, special
representative of the OSCE parliamentary assembly for Nagorno-Karabakh
conflict, announced that "Azerbaijan should reduce the military
budget. It may become a part of the process of resolving of the
Nagorno-Karabakh conflict." Lenmarker says that economies of Armenia
and Azerbaijan and people suffer from drawing out of this conflict
and it is impossible to disagree with this.
From: Emil Lazarian | Ararat NewsPress