WTO: TRADE TO EXPAND BY 9.5% IN 2010 AFTER A DISMAL 2009

/PanARMENIAN.Net/
30.03.2010 18:48 GMT+04:00

/PanARMENIAN.Net/ After the sharpest decline in more than 70 years,
world trade is set to rebound in 2010 by growing at 9.5%, according
to WTO economists.

"WTO rules and principles have assisted governments in keeping markets
open and they now provide a platform from which trade can grow as the
global economy improves. We see the light at the end of the tunnel
and trade promises to be an important part of the recovery. But we
must avoid derailing any economic revival through protectionism,"
said Director-General Pascal Lamy.

Exports from developed economies are expected to increase by 7.5%
in volume terms over the course of the year while shipments from the
rest of the world (including developing economies and the Commonwealth
of Independent States) should rise by around 11% as the world emerges
from recession.

This strong expansion will help recover some, but by no means all,
of the ground lost in 2009 when the global economic crisis sparked a
12.2% contraction in the volume of global trade – the largest such
decline since World War II. Should trade continue to expand at its
current pace, the economists predict, it would take another year for
trade volumes to surpass the peak level of 2008. Measuring trade in
volume terms provides a more reliable basis for annual comparisons
since volume measurements are not distorted by changes in commodity
prices or currency fluctuations, as they can be when trade is measured
in dollars or other currencies.

One positive development in 2009 was the absence of any major increase
in trade barriers imposed by WTO members in response to the crisis.

The number of trade-restricting measures applied by governments
has actually declined in recent months. However, significant slack
remains in the global economy, and unemployment is likely to remain
high throughout 2010 in many countries. Persistent unemployment may
intensify protectionist pressures.

"During these difficult times, the multilateral trading system has
once again proven its value. WTO rules and principles have assisted
governments in keeping markets open and they now provide a platform
from which trade can grow as the global economy improves. We see the
light at the end of the tunnel and trade promises to be an important
part of the recovery. But we must avoid derailing any economic revival
through protectionism," WTO Director-General said.