AZERBAIJANI ANALYST: ARMENIA UNDERSTANDS THAT IT’S THE END OF THE GAME
Today
6.html
April 2 2010
Azerbaijan
Interview with Azerbaijani political analyst Fikrat Sadigov.
Turkish Prime Minister Erdogan is going to trip to the U.S. on April
12-13. Armenian President Serzh Sargsyan will also be on a visit
to the U.S. In your opinion, what can we expect from these visits
in terms of the Turkey-Armenia normalization and resolution of the
Nagorno-Karabakh conflict?
The U.S. wants to play a priority role in normalizing Turkish-Armenian
relations and the Nagorno-Karabakh problem. It initially tried to
dominate the issue of signing of the Zurich protocols, but did not
succeed because Turkey realized that it is fraught with serious
changes in the region. Turkey realizes that there are interests of
Azerbaijan and these issues must be addressed in a constructive way.
The Americans once again attempt to bring together viewpoints and move
the process of Armenian-Turkish normalization of the impasse. They also
see the intransigence of the Armenian side in terms of the updated
Madrid principles, in which Armenia is stubborn and does not want to
make any compromises.
So, I think that Obama is taking the next step to bring these positions
together and find a way out of this impasse.
In your opinion, what this visit may alter in the Turkey-U.S.
relations? Will Turkey send its ambassador back to the U.S.?
I have no doubt that Turkey will send its ambassador back to the United
States. In this context, return of the ambassador to his workplace in
some sense will not affect further development of relations between
the U.S. and Turkey. This is purely formal and procedural matter.
Another thing is that Erdogan’s visit to the United States, at first
glance, should serve to foster the US-Turkish relations. But this
will not happen, because today Turkey and the United States have
quite strained ties.
The fact is that there are so many antecedents. Once Turkey clearly
voiced its position on the Iraqi sisue not allowing the Americans
to use its territory. At the moment, Turkey is in a process of
rapprochement with Iran and Syria and is trying to establish closer
ties with Russia, with whom it had signed various energy deals.
So, Turkey is no longer obedient regional player for the U.S. Of
course, I would not say the relations between the countries will be
hostile, but that they have ceased to allied any more. The United
States must be blamed for this above all.
U.S. President Barack Obama did not uttered the word "genocide"
during his last year’s speech prior to April 24. Do you think Obama
is going to use this world this year?
I think he will not utter this word this year, too, because Obama,
as a head of a powerful nation like the U.S., does not need to do this.
He realistically assess the situation. Also, the U.S. administration
opposed adoption of the "genocide" resolution by the U.S. House
Committee on Foreign Affairs from the very beginning. Hillary Clinton
also opposed the adoption of such resolution.
I think Obama has enough savvy and pragmatism and will not say this
word. U.S. needs Turkey as it plays an important role in the region
and serves as a bridge for relations with the Middle East region and
the Muslim world, in general. And Obama is well aware of this.
Anyway, so far, Obama has behaved correctly as regards the recognition
of events of 1918 as "genocide". Even the resolution on "genocide"
was adopted in the Congress with a margin of one vote.
In your opinion, why Armenia is slow to express its attitude on the
updated version of the Madrid principles? To what extent is resolution
of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict by military ways is relevant today?
It is obvious that Armenia is confused. It is in an impasse, because
it is very difficult to constantly reject all of these Prague and
Madrid principles. Armenia is engaged in trading seeking to bargain
for further privileges and some priorities.
Armenia, realizing that sooner or later it will have to liberate the
occupied Azerbaijani lands, tries to bargain as much as possible and
solve the status of Nagorno-Karabakh right now.
Just recently, the co-chairs of OSCE Minsk Group visited Yerevan and
the occupied territories of Azerbaijan. But the Armenian side did
not give clear reply on the updated Madrid principles, because it
understands that this is end of the game. This is loss of privileges,
the return of occupied territories and a need to continue negotiations
on the status of Nagorno-Karabakh. Armenians understands that no one
will ever recognize this entity as as an independent country including
Azerbaijan first and foremost.
Perhaps, Armenia also fears use of military force by Azerbaijan. So,
I think that the panic in the Armenian society and statements by
different opposition forces are aimed to prolong this conflict as
long as possible.
But, sooner or later, Armenia will have to respect the international
law and liberate the occupied territories and recognize Azerbaijan’s
territorial integrity.