RUSSIAN EXPERT EXPLAINED WHY NO PROGRESS ON THE NAGORNO-KARABAKH ISSUE CAN BE REACHED

Today
April 2 2010
Azerbaijan

Alexander Krylov, senior research fellow at the Russian Academy of
Sciences Institute of World Economy and International Relations said
he believes that the Turkish-Armenian relations are not likely to
reach any progress.

According to him, "The Armenian-Turkish relations are less likely
to see progress in the context of "Armenian genocide". This problem
continues to be the main obstacle to the normalization of bilateral
relations. Along with Karabakh problem, it has also blocked the peace
process. The progress is seen not in the Turkey-Armenia-Azerbaijan
triangle, but in relations of these countries with other countries.

There has been an unprecedented deterioration in relations between
Turkey and Israel and between Turkey and the United States as of late.

In the latter case, the reason for this was the resolution recognizing
the Armenian genocide by the U.S. Congress committee".

"In the meatime, Azerbaijan is developing gas cooperation with Russia
and Iran at a fast pace. Azerbaijan could diversify gas supplies
quickly, efficiently and with great benefit although gas negotiations
between Azerbaijan and Turkey did not reach the desired result so far.

This is unlikely to delight the EU and U.S., who still cherish hopes
for the Nabucco project. All this indicates that the situation in
the Caucasus and around it is rapidly changing forcing states in the
the region to seek response to fundamentally new challenges. More
surprises should be expected," the expert said.

Krylov believes the resolution of the Karabakh conflict is less likely
to see major changes any time soon. The past events hinder development
of relations between states in the region.

"Obviously, Armenia and the Armenian Diaspora will do everything
to signify 95th anniversary of the 1915 events as much as they can,
and not only to mark it as a sad date, but also get weighty political
and diplomatic benefits. But I dont think this approach will lead to
progress in settlement of the Karabakh problem or in the normalization
of Armenian-Turkish relations. Not politicians or public members,
but professional historians should have played a major role here. The
events of the past should not prevent the neighboring nations from
building normal and successful future," he said.

"Dramatic changes in the situation can occur not as a result of April
24th, but as a result of changes in Iraq, who neighbors with Caucasus
and Turkey. As we know, the withdrawal of the U.S. Army is not far
off. It is not yet clear how it will be implemented and what it will
be followed by. Forecasts are rather negative and even apocalyptic."

"Obviously, radical change in this situation will inevitably affect
the Caucasus and Turkey. It is possible that, given the fundamentally
new security challenges, the current differences between Azerbaijan,
Armenia and Turkey will become less acute. This gives hopes that
the dialogue between them will become much more constructive,"
Krylov noted.

T. Teymur Today.Az

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