AZERBAIJANI ANALYST ON POSSIBLE MEETING BETWEEN TURKISH PM AND ARMENIAN PRESIDENT IN U.S.

Today
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April 6 2010
Azerbaijan

Interview with Azerbaijani political analyst Arif Yunus.

Can we say that Erdogan’s upcoming visit to Washington will remove
issue of the "Armenian genocide" from the agenda of the U.S. once
and for all?

To begin with, the issue of "genocide" will not be removed from the
agenda of the United States neither today nor in the coming years. It
will continue hanging over Turkey as the sword of Damocles. It’s
a good tool for putting pressure on Ankara. Problems in US-Turkish
relations will long be ambigious, because Turkey is also a regional
power and seeks to conduct its policy.

In addition, we must understand that the voters in the U.S. have a
significant role. There can not be policy, when the president can,
roughly speaking, shut the mouths of parliamentarians. It does not
work in the United States. And the role of ethnic diasporas in the
U.S. has been playing and will continue to play an important role.

Another thing, is that this year the U.S. president is not going to
do what Armenians expect him to do – he will not make a statement
recognizing the "genocide" on April 24th.

At the same time, the scheduled visit of the Turkish Prime Minister is
related to a new situation in our region rather than "genocide" issue.

Tehran’s nuclear program is the number one issue for the U.S. The U.S.

needs a stable situation in the South Caucasus and the possibility of
using this territory for its future plans in the region, particularly
in connection with Iran. Of course, Turkey’s position also plays a
great role both in relation to Iran and in relation with Caucasus
countries.

In your opinion, will Turkish PM and Armenian President meet in
the U.S.?

I am sure of it. Anyway, I’ll be very surprised if this meeting does
not take place. Americans themselves want this meeting to happen. I
have no doubt that during his meeting with Erdogan, Obama will surely
discuss all issues related to Armenian-Turkish relations. After all,
the question today is very important for both the U.S. administration
and Turkey. Each side hopes to solve its problems. Americans need
further progress in Armenian-Turkish relations, which stalled after
the protocols were signed in Switzerland. There were even fears about
the future prospects of Armenian-Turkish relations. So, this issue
will be discussed both in the course of US-Turkish negotiations and
during meeting between Erdogan and Sargsyan in the U.S.

In your opinion, will the Turkey-Armenia border finally open? Will it
be linked to the resolution of the Armenia-Azerbaijan Nagorno-Karabakh
conflict?

Opening of the Armenian-Turkish border is a matter of time. Most
likely, it will open soon. Simply, each side is trying to squeeze
dividends in its favor and lose as little as possible. But it is very
doubtful whether this issue will be legally linked with the process of
settling the Armenian-Azerbaijani conflict over Nagorno-Karabakh. Of
course, during his meetings with Obama, and then with Sargsyan the
Turkish prime minister will try to link these two issues together. He
knows that Turkish society and Baku also want this. The best way out
for Erdogan and his supporters is to link these two processes. But
he is unlikely to succeed. Anyway, today it is difficult to imagine.

Is it possible that Armenian terrorism will again be used as a
mechanism of pressure on Turkey, and Armenian terrorists will organize
attacks in the country?

I think it has already been left in the past. First, let’s not forget
that notorious Armenian terrorist organization ASALA was supported
by the USSR, and was part of the great geopolitical struggle of
the Soviet Union against NATO and U.S. in that period. There is a
different situation in the region.

May the process of resolving the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict mark
progress any time soon?

No. As always, we’ll hear optimistic statements by the OSCE Minsk Group
and other Western diplomats and experts. There will be statements by
the leaders of Azerbaijan and Armenia. But realistically, I expect
no breakthrough in this regard in near future.. The positions of the
conflicting parties are too far apart, and today I see no positive
dynamics towards the settlement of the conflict.

How do you assess the socio-political situation in Armenia? Does
former President Kocharian have a chance to return to politics?

Today the situation in Armenia is quite difficult. But when compared
with Serzh Sargsyan’s early days in power, today his position is much
stronger than it was a year ago. And we can say that today he feels
as president much more confident than a year ago.

However, socio-political situation in Armenia is heavily dependent on
three factors: the settlement of the Karabakh conflict, relations with
Turkey and the economic situation in the country. And since there is
uncertainty and serious problems in all three cases, it means that
socio-political situation in Armenia will be permanently subject to
changes and shocks.

Since the power in Armenia is not democratic and would not be
inclined to seek dialogue with the opposition and solve problems
based on democratic principles, I do not rule out changes in Serzh
Sargsyan’s position. Therefore, we can only talk about the current
situation of Sargsyan.