RUSSIAN EXPERT ON POSSIBLE IMPACT OF RUSSIA-TURKEY RAPPROACHMENT ON RESOLUTION OF NAGORNO-KARABAKH CONFLICT

Today
April 5 2010
Azerbaijan

Interview with Alikber Alikberov, head of the Center for the Study of
Central Asia, Caucasus and Ural-Volga region at the Russian Academy
of Sciences Institute of Oriental Studies.

The U.S. House committee’s resolution recognizing the "Armenian
genocide" in Ottoman Turkey has spared wide debates in Turkey and
the United States as of late…

If the U.S. administration’s policy is based on political expediency
taking into account current international situation, the decisions of
Congress are often based on the primacy of values which are fundamental
in American society.

Let’s take a look at this situation from the other side: for many
years European leaders announced near-term membership of Turkey to
the EU with details of integration being discussed at each summit. And
the Turkish society believed in the promises of its soonest accession
to EU.

What actually happened? The European Union has grown immeasurably
failing to include Turkey. Moreover, prospect for Turkey’s membership
is moving away each day because the political declaration is one
thing, but the real perceptions of friend or foe is something quite
different. The European Union has its own conferences, public opinion,
institutions, finally, its own identity based on Christian culture and
shared history even it may be contradictory. And there’s no getting
around it.

This does not mean there is no the political motive involved. All
sorts of political implications were debated while preparing the
resolution within the committee of experts especially because the U.S.

administration has repeatedly warned Congress of a possible
deterioration in relations with Turkey. Nevertheless, the resolution
was adopted.

In your opinion, will Turkey and the United States be able to return
the relations to the previous level any time soon?

It does not make any sense to overestimate the significance of the
congressional resolution for the relations between Turkey and the
U.S.. At the same time, Turkey can not ignore it at all. I am sure
that if it was about China, the U.S. Congress would have acted much
more cautiously. The U.S. tries not to anger the Chinese "dragon". The
recall of ambassador is a predictable step by Turkey in response to
an obvous neglect of its official position by the Congress.

And how would you comment on Turkey’s intentions to build closer ties
with Russia?

With regard Turkey’s policy of rapprochement with Russia, both of
these countries have great unused potential for cooperation and also
an understanding in some matters of global cooperation. It would be
strange if this potential is disregarded.

In your opinion, how will Russia act in this situation?

Russia will behave the same way as any self-respecting country would
do in a similar situation: it will develop a multi-faceted policies.

Of course, it will come closer to Turkey, but not to the detriment to
its relations with Armenia or the United States. Russia’s rapprochement
with Turkey may be synchronized with the process of rapprochement
with Armenia-Turkey rapprochement and give new impetus to this process.

On the other hand, there is a unique opportunity for Armenia in its
relations with Azerbaijan because Azerbaijan is a partner and ally
not only for Turkey but also for Russia. Therefore, we should expect
an intensification of contacts between the countries, including at
the highest level. Perhaps in the coming months, we will witness a
major breakthrough in relations between Russia and Turkey.

It is believed that closer ties with one country are built at the
expense of relations with other countries. But it is not true.

Observers are always interested in the reaction of either party at
any event, such as how actually Azerbaijan perceives the process of
Turkish-Armenian rapprochement. Of course, new commitments sometimes
tie up hands, but they also often create more effective ways to address
complex problems thanks to a higher level of mutual understanding
and trust.

What impact these events had or may have on resolution of the
Nagorno-Karabakh conflict?

Karabakh issue is one of the intractable problems not only in the
post-Soviet area, but also throughout the world. Neither the Minsk
Group or Working Group of the Dortmund conference, nor any other
international mechanisms involved in the process have achieved any
meaningful results.

Even passive participation as an expert in several rounds of informal
tripartite negotiations to achieve a preliminary conditions allowed
me to understand the depth of the contradictions between the parties
to the conflict. And the hopes that someone from third countries will
solve this problem are unfounded.

Nobody will be able to force the conflicting parties to make friends
until they themselves are ready to cooperate and compromise. More
measures to ensure mutual trust between the main mediators will benefit
the entire process. I think, a lot depends on how far Russia and Turkey
will go in their rapprochement, and whether they will overcome their
differences and take concrete decisions in terms of regional security.

How do you see an early resolution to the conflict given the positions
and proposals of the parties?

Obviously, the problem has no military solution, consequences of which
can further protract resolution of the conflict. The situation has
long been hopelessly deadlocked due to the mutually exclusive claims
of the parties who are not prepared to make whatever compromise is.

Public opinion in all the republics as uncompromising. Demonstrating
such a will requires a favorable political conditions in which
compromise can be linked to the interests of the parties.

Rapprochement between Russia and Turkey would greatly contribute to
resolving the Karabakh conflict.

To achieve immediate results, Azerbaijan will also need new
approaches and mechanisms that it has yet to create gievn the
prevailing realities.

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