WHAT’S ON ARMENIAN FRONT?

Hurriyet
April 7 2010
Turkey

Turkish politics and the society is predominantly occupied with the
constitutional amendment drive of the ruling Justice and Development
Party, or AKP, and the latest appeal to the president of the main
opposition Republican People’s Party, or CHP, to declare from now
on he would favor referring to referendum three articles in the
AKP’s proposal – those regarding the high courts and the closure of
political parties – separate from the remaining 24 "sugar coating"
articles and the provisional articles. Yet, something is happening
silently in Turkish-Armenian relations – in particular regarding the
contentious protocols for improved relations between the two countries.

A report from Yerevan early in the morning came as a complete surprise
for many newsmen in Ankara. As important as it is, the report from
Yerevan that the Armenian parliament would complete before the end
of this week the approval process of the Turkish-Armenian protocols
became a secondary development as the day progressed. It became clear
that, not only a senior Turkish diplomat was in the Armenian capital
with a special letter from Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan to
Armenian President Serge Sarkisian, but the two leaders would indeed
be meeting in Washington on the sidelines of a nuclear security summit.

Developments are indeed so striking that one cannot stop but ask
what else might be in the pipeline? Perhaps also on the agenda is a
meeting between the Turkish prime minister and the Armenian president
with American President Barrack Obama playing the host. Anyhow, both
the Turkish prime minister and the Armenian president are already
scheduled to have separate meetings with the American president. Why
not have a trilateral meeting since the Obama administration has been
the main backstage catalyst of the Turkish-Armenian rapprochement
for a long time?

Such a trilateral meeting was not yet confirmed by any of the three
countries. Probably, either such a meeting was not yet firmly arranged,
or the three countries wanted to keep such an encounter secret for
now. Because of the delay in Erdogan’s making a decision to attend
the nuclear security summit due to the government’s protest of the
House Armenian resolution, even the expected Erdogan-Obama meeting is
not on the official agenda of the U.S. president. Yet, both Turkish
and American officials appear confident that somehow the president
and the prime minister will create an opportunity for get together
during the summit.

As for now, it is not yet public what tools U.S. diplomacy used
in prodding either Armenia or Turkey. The Armenian administration
decided to complete the parliamentary approval process of the
protocols "without making any change in them" and drop its earlier
demand that the protocols should first be approved by the Turkish
Parliament. The Turkish administration all of a sudden sent Foreign
Ministry Undersecretary Feridun Sinirlioglu to Yerevan as a special
emissary of Erdogan to deliver a letter to Sarkisian. Yet, it
was known for some time that the Obama administration wanted the
two governments to stop dragging their feet, act on the protocols
and take some concrete steps towards improving relations between
themselves. At one point, Secretary of State Hillary Clinton even
created uproar in the Armenian diaspora with a "slip of the tongue"
that the history commission to be established within the framework
of the protocols would soon be established.

Normalization

With Turkish Ambassador Namık Tan – withdrawn to protest the House
of Representatives Foreign Relations Committee’s approval of the
"G" resolution – back in Washington and Erdogan making a U-turn from
his earlier decision not to attend the April 12-13 nuclear security
summit in the U.S. capital, it is clear Turkey has received "credible
assurances" from the Obama administration of a more active resolution
of the possible "G" resolution in Congress.

Yet, obviously, with the April 24 anniversary of the so-called
Armenian "genocide" approaching and pressure building on Obama from
the Armenians to use the "G" word and Turkey warning of the serious
consequences such a development might create in Turkish-American
relations, the U.S. administration wants to achieve some progress on
the protocols. Perhaps, the U.S. is after a move from Ankara regarding
making a pledge to open the border with Armenia in the foreseeable
future and a signal from Yerevan of its intention to withdraw from
the occupied Azerbaijani territory – the reason of the border closure
by Turkey – helping Turkey to act on the border issue.