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Friday, April 8, 2010
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace

Armenia and Turkey: Bridging the Gap
by Thomas de Waal

The current crisis between Armenia and Turkey will likely reach a head
by April 24, the date commemorated as Armenian Genocide Day. While
there is virtually no hope that the 2009 Armenian-Turkish Protocols
will be ratified soon, both parties should take small steps to rebuild
confidence and affirm their faith in the process.

If ratified, the Protocols would open the closed Armenia-Turkey
border, promising Armenia long-term economic transformation and an end
to its regional isolation. For Turkey, ratifying the protocols gives
it a new role in the Caucasus and is a major step toward ending the
humiliation of foreign parliaments passing genocide resolutions
condemning Turkey.

Key Conclusions:

* Turkey, which has dragged its feet this year, needs to make
goodwill gestures toward Armenia to keep the process alive. Steps
could include opening the border for noncommercial travelers near the
ancient city of Ani to allow Armenian tourists to visit the site
inside Turkey.

* The Armenian-Azerbaijani conflict over Nagorny Karabakh remains
the deepest problem facing the South Caucasus, and for the Turkish
government, the major obstacle to ratifying the Protocols. Although
Armenian-Turkish normalization is negatively affecting the Karabakh
peace process in the short term, in the long run it has the potential
to change the dynamics of the region and help the resolution of the
Karabakh conflict.

* Negotiations over Nagorny Karabakh are stalled. Mediators should
not push the parties too hard on status issues, but instead focus on
other areas that will underpin a final agreement, such as Track II
talks and economic development and reconstruction plans.

* The Azerbaijani exclave of Nakhichevan offers a `win-win’
opportunity in the Nagorny Karabakh conflict. If Armenia agrees to
open up communications with the enclave in tandem with the opening of
the Armenia-Turkey border, all sides could claim success.

On April 24, President Obama should move beyond the annual debate over
the word genocide and look ahead to the centenary of the tragedy in
2015 by encouraging the Turks to take part in commemorating the
occasion.
`The Turkey-Armenia process was the most positive initiative in the
South Caucasus in years and still has the potential to transform the
region. If the process is to get back on track, all involved parties,
including the United States, should articulate a strategic vision for
the region, and for resolution of the Karabakh conflict,’ writes de
Waal. `The centenary of the Armenian tragedy in 2015 is a good
reference point by which to set the goal of Armenian-Turkish
normalization.’