Armenian-Turkish process will not be suspended
The Protocols will be ratified no matter we like it or not, and the
parties interested in this `international project’ will begin a new
phase: implementation of the items of the Protocols.
Turkish Prime Minister’s special envoy Feridun Sinirlioglu’s visit to
Armenia caused an inexplicable commotion in the political and expert
levels, although such kind of visits before anticipated or scheduled
meetings of Heads of State are an ordinary diplomatic practice.
However, the passion of Armenian commentators to see some secret (or
evil) intent in every move best shows how little information the
society has on the Armenian-Turkish relations, being satisfied with
`comments’ contradicting both the essence and the content.
April 9, 2010 AMT
PanARMENIAN.Net –
But if you try to calculate the forthcoming steps of Ankara, which, by
the way, is not so difficult, it must be noted that in all probability
there will be no suspension of Armenian-Turkish processes. World
powers will not simply allow Ankara and Yerevan to engage in gag. Most
interesting in this situation is Sinirlioglu’s visit to Baku, where he
will continue to assure his Azeri `brothers’ that the attitude of
Turkey towards Azerbaijan has not changed. We just wonder whether
there are still naive people in Baku, who believe this poorly
disguised lie. It appears that for persistence of Armenian-Turkish
negotiations Erdogan has to sacrifice Azerbaijan, while Armenia has to
keep from demanding Barack Obama to use the term `genocide’ in his
April 24 address. On the whole, it could have been worse. Before
referring to Armenian concessions, it should be reminded that Turkey
has set several conditions before Azerbaijan, only after whose
execution the Azerbaijani-Turkish dialogue can continue. Among them we
find introduction of visa-free regime (not welcomed by Baku), official
recognition of independence of Northern Cyprus, reduction of gas
prices, etc. Azerbaijani politicians prefer not to talk about this,
trying to shift the fault of all their foreign policy failures onto
Armenia.
As for Armenian concessions, Barak Obama in any case will think of a
new euphemism in order to avoid the term `genocide’ and not to push
away Turkey for good and all. And because exclusively the Armenian
Diaspora deals with this issue, the Armenian President can rightfully
say that the Republic of Armenia does not specifically require
anything from the U.S. President or the Congress. But international
recognition of the Armenian Genocide and its consequences are one of
the trends of the foreign policy of Armenia and nobody has the right
to interfere in what and how Yerevan does.
Let us note that in this process risks are greater for Turkey than for
Armenia. Ratification of the Protocols may lead to special nation-wide
elections, in which Islamists may lose. The military and nationalists
will come to power, which is much worse for Yerevan than the Erdogan
government, although when it comes to Turkey it is useless to think of
what is good or bad for Armenia. Simply Erdogan is the lesser of two
evils. Or maybe he is not? In any case opposition is against
normalization of relations and opening of the border in particular.
And if by and large it is all the same to Armenia what will happen to
the boundary, for Ankara it is in some way another advantage in the
negotiations for EU integration. The advantage is, however, indistinct
especially in the light of recent statements by Angela Merkel and
Nicolas Sarkozy. Anyway, the Turkish parliament cannot but ratify the
Protocols, otherwise the ruling party in Turkey will be reminded of
the threats against the Armenians, the Cyprus problem and many other
things. In short, the Protocols will be ratified no matter we like it
or not, and the parties interested in this `international project’
will begin a new phase: implementation of the items of the Protocols.
And this phase will be much harder than signing or ratification. The
real `auction’ will begin just then. But all this will take place
after April 24, although we might also be mistaken. If the talks in
Washington go as scheduled by the United States, ratification might
take place on April 22 or 23, on the anniversary of promulgation of
the Armenian-Turkish agreement.
Karine Ter-Sahakyan / PanARMENIAN News