news.az, Azerbaijan
April 10 2010

US attempts to press on Yerevan to make concessions in Karabakh, Armenian expert
Sat 10 April 2010 | 07:37 GMT Text size:

Stepan Grigoryan News.Az interviews Stepan Grigoryan, head of Armenian
think-tank the Analytical Centre on Globalization and Regional
Cooperation.

Turkish Premier will visit the United States on April 12-13. Which
results do you think can be expected after his meeting with US
President Obama?

The Turkish prime minister and the US president have a lot of issues
for discussion including the issues of military cooperation and the
future of US military bases in Turkey, war in Iraq, peacekeeping
operations in Afghanistan, the problem of Turkey’s rapprochement with
Syria and Iran. The Iranian issue becomes even more relevant in the
context of non-proliferation of nuclear weapons, about which the six
countries (USA, Russia, Britain, France, China and Germany) have
serious fears and concerns. Here, even Russia has recently agreed on
sanctions against Iran. Against this background, the signing of
Turkey’s multibillion gas contracts with Iran, significantly weakening
the effectiveness of sanctions against that country, looks like a
serious challenge to the international community.

This background will have a significant impact on the results of the
US-Turkish negotiations, as well as discussions of issues related to
the Armenian-Turkish relations.

Obviously, the normalization of Armenian-Turkish relations and the
possible ratification of the Armenian-Turkish protocols in the Turkish
Parliament will be critical during the meeting the of Prime Minister
of Turkey and the US president also because they affect the issue of
personal prestige of Barack Obama. The world remembers the promises
made to them during the pre-election presidential campaign in 2008
regarding the recognition of the Armenian Genocide, committed in the
Ottoman Empire in 1915, in the event of his election as the US
president.

And the purpose of the visit of the Turkish Premier to Washington is
important here? If he goes to the United States for "linking" the
issue of normalization of Armenian-Turkish relations with progress in
resolving the Karabakh conflict, then today we can say that the
negotiations will not succeed and will lead to a sharp increase in the
probability of recognition of the Armenian Genocide in 1915 from the
US side. I think it comes to this, because recently official Ankara
has again assured Azerbaijan that it would discuss the Karabakh
problem in Washington.

It is important to understand what the problem is not in Armenia and
its policies. It is rather in the fact that both the United States and
Russia have now a consensus on the fact that the Armenian-Turkish
relations should be separated from the Azerbaijani-Armenian issues.
Both powers understand the difficulty of simultaneous settlement of
two complex issues in the region, and besides, it is clear that Russia
is not interested in the soonest settlement of the Karabakh conflict
(because it does not "see" the possible implications of this for it).
Against this background, Turkey’s attempt to "force in" its vision on
solving this problem in the United States can backfire.

I would also like to add that Washington will host a meeting of
President Serzh Sargsyan with Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip
Erdogan. A trilateral meeting between Obama, Erdogan and Sargsyan is
also possible when necessary (depending on the results of two other
bilateral meetings).

How will this meeting impact Washington’s position in the
Armenian-Turkish issue?

As is was earlier said, in case Turkey binds the Armenian-Turkish and
Azerbaijani-Armenian relations (if exactly, bind ratification of the
Armenian-Turkish protocols to `progress’ in the resolution of the
Karabakh conflict) this will lead to the growing possibility of the
recognition of Armenian genocide by the United States.

Indeed, the fact that Azerbaijan was not invited to the Summit on
nuclear security in Washington (as is known, nether Turkey, nor
Armenia or Georgia are not nuclear superpowers, however, they have
received an invitation from President Barack Obama) shows the US
position, which is against binding the Armenian-Turkish and
Azerbaijani-Armenian relations with each other (especially because the
negative position of Azerbaijan to possible ratification of the
Armenian-Turkish protocols in the Turkish parliament is clear).

Which issues can Sargsyan and Obama discuss in Washington and how can
this meeting influence the further developments?

The meeting will discuss two issues: the way Barack Obama should
overcome the situation with recognition of the Armenian genocide of
1915 (in the case the Turkish parliament does not ratify the protocols
until April 24) and the issue of Armenia’s readiness for compromises
in the Karabakh conflict settlement. I think Washington will try to
put some pressure on official Yerevan for their readiness to make
concessions in the Karabakh issue.

In order not to be subjected to pressure in Washington, Armenia should
speak with a number of initiatives until April 12. For examples, the
National Assembly of Armenia could have ratified both Armenian-Turkish
protocols regardless of the actions to be taken by the Turkish
parliament and Armenia also could offer Azerbaijan to sign a framework
agreement based on the Madrid principles. This would prove the
reliability and predictability of the Armenian actions in the complex
process of the Armenian-Turkish rapprochement and would also create a
favorable background before the meeting of the leaders of the United
States, Turkey and Armenia in Washington.

What do you expect from the traditional speech of President Obama on April 24?

Though odd it may seem, the US president’s speech on April 24 will
strongly depend on Turkey’s position in the ratification of protocols.
If Turkey does not ratify protocols until 24 April 2010, the
possibility of the use of the word `genocide’ in Obama’s message will
be extremely high.

Can we expect a breakthrough in the Karabakh conflict settlement soon?

It is naive to expect a great breakthrough in the resolution of the
Karabakh conflict against such an unfavorable background when even the
foreign ministers of Azerbaijan and Armenia `exchange’ sharp and even
abusive statements. The level of mutual trust is extremely high in the
societies. But even it such conditions it is possible to find
intermediate solutions. For example, Armenia could state readiness to
sign Madrid principles on the resolution of the Karabakh conflict, as
they contain the elements concerning all conflict parties (the
principle of territorial integrity, right of nations for
self-determination and solution of conflict without use of force). The
signing of the framework agreement between Azerbaijan and Armenia
could become enough for ratification of the Armenian-Turkish protocols
in the Turkish parliament.

Kamala Mammadova
News.Az