PROTOCOLS’ RATIFICATION IN TURKISH PARLIAMENT IS ALMOST IMPOSSIBLE: ZAMAN

news.am
April 12 2010
Armenia

NEWS.am posts the full text of Turkish analyst Yavuz Baydar’s article
"Sargsyan and Erdogan: What to do now?" on Turkish Zaman daily website.

"After some & ‘ifs and buts’ Turkish Premier Recep Tayyip Erdogan
and FM Ahmet Davutoglu will be present in Washington, D.C., for the
nuclear security summit and will use the occasion to intensely discuss
where to go in the paralyzed &’normalization process’ with Armenia,"
the source reports.

"Developments in the global scene should have taught Turkish leaders
that the historic dimensions of what happened to Ottoman Armenians in
1915 need proper closure, before the centenary of the Great Armenian
Tragedy in 2015. The pursuit of truth by independent scholars will have
to go on, and the media will commemorate this event — among other
tragedies in the horrendous 20th century-with old and new material,"
the daily reads.

"One such example was a detailed documentary aired by German ARD TV.

Called &’Aghet’ (Catastrophe), the 90-minute program contained some
new material, also highlighting the passive involvement of German
officers (Ottoman allies in World War I) and the open knowledge of
Berlin of what took place in Anatolia," the source says.

"But what will be done today is at least as important as knowing
more about the past. All the sides involved now act with knowledge
that time is the enemy of the process, particularly in regard to
the political &’high pressure’ in Turkey and a growing concern that
political forces in Armenia against &’normalization’ might replace
RA President Serzh Sargsyan in the next elections. The U.S. Congress
has become irritated by what it saw as &’Ankara dragging its feet,
just to leave the issue to posterity.’

In today’s Turkey, passing the protocols in Parliament is almost
impossible, given the difficult circumstances and an overloaded
agenda. On the other hand, Yerevan knows that the patience expected
of it might strengthen the mindset in Armenia that &’Turks are never
to be trusted.’

&’What to do? The recent visits to Yerevan and Baku by Feridun
Sinirlioglu, Turkish FM undersecretary, seem to have eased the tension
a bit. Yet the real deal will be in Washington, on what to say and
do and how to involve the two leaders in some concrete steps, which
seem necessary. The priority might be given to those steps that do
not necessitate an approval of the Protocols in the parliaments,’
the daily informs.

"A fine set of short-term proposals are to be found in a fresh paper
written by Thomas de Waal-a prominent expert on the Caucasus-for
the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. He outlines the
following points: a) an opening of the Armenia-Turkey border for
noncommercial travelers; b) a limited opening of a zone next to the
Armenia-Turkey border that contains the medieval Armenian city of Ani,
now just inside Turkish territory; c) a Turkish government initiative
to invite Diaspora Armenians to visit the ancient Armenian heritage
sites of Anatolia; and d) the opening of a regular Turkish Airlines
route between Istanbul and Yerevan. De Waal also suggests that the
Azerbaijani exclave of Nakhchivan is a "potential ‘win-win’ area"
in the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict, noting, "All sides would win if
Armenia were to agree to open up communications and rebuild shared
infrastructure with Nakhchivan in tandem with the opening of the
Armenia-Turkey border," the author adds.

In addition, Ankara "may encourage respected Turkish universities to
invite prominent scholars of the diaspora for a series of regular(ized)
conferences in Turkey with independent (not &’state sponsored’)
Turkish academics to openly discuss (not bargain over) the history,"
he reckons.

These conferences are likely to prepare the stage for the "long-term
strategy" for 2015. In conclusion the expert refers to President Obama:
"The president could deliver a message on April 24, 2010, in which
he notes that the centenary commemorations are now five years away
and pledges that, if still in office, he will join in those events
(perhaps even in Yerevan), but in which he also promises the Turks a
little peace until then by affirming his faith in the internal debate
in Turkey. Obama could say, ‘We hope to mark this tragic date with
our Turkish friends, and not without them’."

"I can only agree. The ARD documentary, revealing &’passive German
involvement,’ and, to a degree, a &’shared responsibility,’ is also
helpful in a sense that Turkey can and must be assisted by its friends
to develop a ‘joint link’ to its past," the analyst concludes.