EXPERTS: TURKEY- ARMENIA NEGOTIATING PROCESS CAN HARDLY MOVE FORWARD
E.Tariverdiyeva

Trend
April 14 2010
Azerbaijan

The process of normalization of the Turkey- Armenia relations can
hardly move forward due to insurmountable differences between the
parties, experts say.

"The normalization process is in the frozen state because of Armenia’s
fault and it is unlikely to unfreeze the matter that is stagnant
for 16 years, if not in a dead state," Expert of the ‘Lider- TV’
analytical group Tofig Abbasov told Trend.

Apr.12, Washington hosted Armenian President Serzh Sargsyan’s meeting
with Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan. The talks that were held
under the international nuclear security summit lasted 1 hour and
15 minutes.

Armenia is not going to make the fact of "genocide" of Armenians in
the Ottoman Empire a subject to investigation in any format. Sargsyan
stated about this speaking at the National Cathedral in Washington
before the American Armenians after the meeting with Erdogan,
News.am reported.

Sargsyan said Yerevan even does not intend to "pretend that it believes
that Turkey can play a positive role in the negotiation process on
the Karabakh settlement."

"Armenia’s position was and remains very clear: Turkey can not speak
the language of preconditions to Armenia and Armenians. We just will
not admit," he added.

Observers think that the process of normalizing Turkish-Armenian
relations will remain indefinitely in a frozen state because of the
intransigence of the parties on the so-called "genocide" of 1915 and
Armenia’s unconstructive position in the Nagorno-Karabakh issue.

Time is not in favor of a positive outcome of the process of
normalizing Turkish-Armenian relations, Expert on South Caucasian
countries, fellow of University of Coimbra, Licinia Simao, told Trend
News via E-mail

Simao believes the scenario for the ratification of the diplomatic
protocols, by the Turkish and Armenian Parliaments, has changed
considerably, over the last months. "The initial enthusiasm and
determination shown by both countries’ presidents to push through
a normalization of relations, despite domestic opposition from more
radical sectors of society, has been challenged," she said.

Turkish MP from the ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP)
Abdurahman Kurt believes Turkey has done everything to normalize
relations with Armenia, but Armenians put impossible conditions
before Turkey.

"Armenian’s such a step will not harm anyone but itself," Kurt told
Trend over the telephone. "On our part we have done everything without
getting anything in return."

Kurt said that given Armenia’s stubbornness one can talk about a
complete halt of the process of normalizing relations.

"There is no need to demand from Turkey to normalize relations with
Armenia, it has done all that was in its power. It is a pity that
the world community took the matter one-sidedly," Kurt said.

According to observers, the parties will never be able to agree on
the issue of so-called "genocide" in 1915.

Just Armenia’s stubbornness in achieving its goals, such as in the
recognition of the so-called "genocide", has reduced the level of
Armenian-Turkish relations to a minimum, Kurt said.

Abbasov believes nobody can convince Armenians around the world to
accept the fact that there was no genocide. None of them, including
Sargsyan, does not want to face the truth just because a mythical
genocide of nearly 100 years is a major element of national identity,
Abbasov said.

"If someone from the Armenians dares to shed light on the truth,
hw will inevitably be condemned by the world Armenians and current
president of the ‘suffering’ country much less dare to do it.

Moreover, the stories about ‘genocide’ is not bad works and brings
this ‘suffering’ country weighty logistical and political dividends,"
Abbasov added.

According to Kurt, Armenia’s rejection of a investigation commission
to study the 1915 events proved that there was no ‘genocide’ and
Armenia is afraid that it will bounce back.

Simao said there is another aspect that the Armenian government cannot
compromise on is the maintenance of the recognition of the genocide
on the agenda of the Diaspora.

"In fact, there is very little control of the Armenian government over
the actions of these organizations abroad, whereas their financial
and political support is crucial," Simao said.

The issue of Nagorno-Karabakh conflict resolution became another
major stumbling block between the sides.

Simao thinks that these pressures on the normalization process are
not new the recognition of the Armenian genocide has been a long-term
demand by the Armenian Diaspora. On the other hand, Turkish support for
Azerbaijan on the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict has also been a constant
feature of regional relations, she said.

"Turkey and Azerbaijan are at odds regarding the prices for Azerbaijani
gas exports to Europe, via Turkey through the EU-backed Nabucco
pipeline. Turkey will have to hope for progress on the Karabakh peace
negotiations to strengthen its position in negotiations with Baku,"
Simao said.

If the Armenian side continues to balk in the resolution of the
Karabakh knot, then the problem will find its denouement in spite of
the reluctance of Sagsyan and his followers, Abbasov said.

Experts also doubt that the U.S. can not exert a decisive influence
on the process of negotiations between Armenia and Turkey.

According to Abbasov, after meeting with Obama, Armenia, of course,
got another dose of moral support from his colleague, as well as
from Mrs. Hillary Clinton, who is the chief coordinator of the
Armenian-Turkish reconciliation.

"But it must not forget that America is far away, but neighbors, that
is, a step away from it and what the friends in the face of Americans
and others, might predict them, it is not at all correspond to the
reality," Abbasov said.

Simao belies although the Obama Administration is still committed to
improving relations between Ankara and Yerevan, which is a crucial
factor, the process has now moved more clearly into the domestic
politics of parliamentary ratification, where the good will of the
presidents is no longer a central matter.

However, she believes at this stage, the U.S. can not affect Turkey.

The deterioration of relations with Israel has also meant some
irritation of the U.S. regarding Turkey. The opposite also became true
with Turkish outrage towards the passing of a resolution by the U.S.

House of Representatives on the Armenian Genocide, Simao said.

R.Hafizoglu contributed to the article.