AZERBAIJANI ANALYST: ARMENIA WILL "JUMP" IF ITS TOLD TO "JUMP"

Today
April 16 2010
Azerbaijan

What is your assessment of the Erdogan-Sargsyan meeting that took
place in Washington a couple of days ago?

Statements by the parties made after the meeting give reason to say
that the talks reached no progress. The most that Turkey and Armenia
could reach is that both sides expressed readiness to further continue
their dialogue.

Erdogan, before and after the meeting in the U.S., repeatedly stated
that Turkey is not going to open its borders with Armenia until it
withdraws from the Azerbaijani territories. For Azerbaijan, this is
a very positive factor, which should bring Ankara and Baku together
even more.

Earlier, our relationship was based only on personal friendship
between the two leaders, and economic relations between the states
did not give grounds to assert that we are strategic partners. Now
we have a solid ground for establishing strategic partnership.

Another positive outcome of Erdogan’s U.S. visit is that Barack Obama
made it clear that he will not utter the word "Armenian genocide".
Turkish diplomacy has shown its maturity and was able to convince
the U.S. that the Turkish-American relations are much more important
than all the other subjective factors. In any case, Erdogan made it
clear that he is not afraid of possible recognition of "genocide"
by the U.S. because he does not consider such moves to be competent.

In your opinion, in what issues Washington will ask Ankara to help
in exchange for refusal to recognize "Armenian genocide"?

Everything is pretty obvious here. Turkey’s credibility has been
increasing rapidly in the region and the world lately. So, Washington
cannot ignore Ankara. Turkey is working hard in Afghanistan and Iraq,
and also may be chief mediator in relations with Iran. Ankara has
much influence in the Middle East and Caucasus as well. I think that
the White House will ask Turkey to help on all issues related to
these countries.

In your view, with whom Armenian lobby in the U.S. Congress can ally
when considering the "Armenian genocide" bill?

I think that the Armenian lobby has no help any more. This issue has
been considered by administrations of President Bush, Bill Clinton and
now that of Obama. But the bill was never enacted because the White
House has always understood that Turkey is much more important than
a handful of Armenians living in the United States. If necessary,
the White House could simply eliminate institute of lobbying, and
thus to silence anyone.

Do you really believe that the U.S. can overnight eliminate an
institute lobbying existing for more than a century?

The U.S. adopted Jackson-Vanik amendments and also amendments to the
Section 907 overnight. Washington can take such decisions quickly
without delay. The Armenian lobby has not yet hindered the White
House to a large extent. On the contrary, the authority uses them to
intimidate Ankara, although Erdogan has hinted that he does not care
what decisions U.S. Congress can taken against Turkey. The U.S. cannot
deal with Iran because it is strong and self-sufficient country.
Turkey is not weaker than Iran.

If the Armenia lobby in the U.S. is not so strong, then why the U.S.
Congress Committee adopted a bill recognizing the "Armenian genocide"?

The decision, taken with a margin of only one vote, once again shows
that influence of the lobby should not be exaggerated. If the bill
were adopted with a margin of at least 10 votes, it could be said
that Armenians have a strong influence on the U.S. Congress. But this
fact once again demonstrated weakness of the Armenian lobby. Someone
"stamped" in the White House, and this lobby immediately kept silent.

Experienced former Congressman Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton know
all the "ins and outs" in the American legislature, so it is always
easy for them to balance it.

Armenian President meets with diaspora members and makes some sort
of report to them during almost all his trips. The president did the
same during his recent U.S. trip. In what degree does the Armenia
Diaspora shape Armenia’s foreign policy?

I think that the words Sargsyan addressed to the Armenian Diaspora can
be translated roughly as "Gentlemen, who can feed a hungry Armenia?"
Yerevan cannot control the Armenian diaspora, as it receives millions
of dollars from it which is enough to live from hand to mouth. Because
"Armenia will jump if its told to jump." If Sargsyan behaves well,
perhaps the Diaspora will continue to provide financial support.