‘CYNICISM’ OVER KARABAKH SETTLEMENT PROSPECTS INEVITABLE

news.az
April 15 2010
Azerbaijan

Thomas Goltz News.Az interviews Thomas Goltz, visiting scholar of
geography at Montana University (USA).

In his speech to the cabinet on 14 April the Azerbaijani president
accused the OSCE Minsk Group mediators of supporting Armenia. What do
you think is the reason for the lack of interest among the superpowers
in resolution of the Karabakh conflict?

I cannot answer this in any rational manner aside from saying that
this sort of behaviour by the international community, including my
country, the USA, is yet another example of rewarding the aggressor
and punishing the victim. Sadly, for Azerbaijan, this is nothing new –
please recall the entire story of Article 907.

Will Armenian-Turkish relations be normalized any time soon,
considering the unwillingness of the Armenians to make concessions
on Karabakh or to stop seeking international recognition for the
‘genocide’?

Once again, I was not there to hear or try and understand the nuances
of diplomatic speech, so I am reluctant to speculate. That said, for
years I have openly wondered about the dynamic between the Armenians
of Armenia and the Armenians of the diaspora, and those who want to
live in the real world and those who choose to live in a fantasy world.

Is the clash between the principles of territorial integrity and
self-determination destructive for a Karabakh settlement?

Armenia conveniently insists on ‘Self Determination’ for Karabakh,
while Azerbaijan continues to insist on ‘Territorial Integrity’. The
contradiction between these two opposed standards goes back to
at least the Treaty of Westphalia of 1637, or whenever – I do not
have my notesheet in front of me right now. In current terms, the
theoretic issue has extreme resonance: do ALL member states of the
UN get to enjoy ‘territorial integrity’ (including diverse freedoms
for national minorities), or not? If the answer is ‘no,’ then the
entire international system/concept of states will be overturned. The
ramifications of this go FAR beyond Azerbaijan.

What are the prospects for progress in the Karabakh conflict? Can
progress be made this year?

I am not close enough to the diverse players involved to make
any fact-based assessment on this issue. That said, I have heard
far-too-many ‘breakthrough!’ announcements to NOT be cynical on
this issue.