I AM CONCERNED ABOUT POSSIBILITY OF RENEWAL OF CONFLICT – BRITISH EXPERT

news.az
April 15 2010
Azerbaijan

Neil MacFarlane News.Az interviews Neil MacFarlane, head of the
Department of Politics and International Relations at Oxford
University.

President Sargsyan said after meeting with prime-minister Erdogan
that Armenia will never accept compromises in "genocide" issue and
Karabakh problem. How real are the improvements between Armenia and
Turkey and Armenia and Azerbaijan in this regard?

For the moment, the improvement in relations between Armenia and
Turkey is incomplete. As I Understand it, Armenia is reluctant to
accept linkage between Karabakh and the process of normalization
with Turkey. The Turkish side finds it difficult to proceed with
ratification on this basis, for domestic political reasons and because
of its longstanding good relations with Azerbaijan.

As for genocide, I feel that there may be some movement on Turkey’s
part. There is discussion of the issue in Turkey. Some years ago it
was not possible to have those conversations. So there is evidence
of some change, but it is slow and nowhere near complete.

On Armenia-Azerbaijan, perhaps I am missing something, but I don’t
see evidence of improvement. I am concerned about the possibility of
a renewal of the conflict.

What kind of role can Obama play in normalization of relations between
Armenia from one side and Turkey and Azerbaijan from another?

He can try to persuade the different sides to keep the process going,
but I don’t think he has enough leverage to deliver a settlement of
these issues.

Do you expect that Obama will use the "genocide" word in his speech
on April 24-th to Armenian community?

That depends what you mean. He might refer to the congressional process
on this matter. But I don’t think you will hear him directly describe
the events of 1915 as genocide.

The Armenian side says that getting independence for Karabakh is the
only way to solve the conflict. Its clear that Azerbaijan will never
recognize it. Can Armenia expect support from international community
if Yerevan first will declare this "independence"?

I don’t think so.

There is an opinion that the Karabakh problem harms Armenia more than
Azerbaijan and it would be easier to solve the Karabakh conflict
between Azerbaijan and Armenia (which is in economical crisis) if
there were no interruption from Armenia diaspora, which don’t accept
any compromises. How would you comment on this point of view?

In the abstract that may be true, but the Armenian diaspora (or
parts of it) have strong views on this matter and I don’t think it is
possible to separate them from the political process in Armenia itself.