WHY RUSSIA IS EXTENDING AN OLIVE BRANCH TO TBILISI AND OTHER RESTIVE REGIONS.

Newsweek
April 16 2010

Peace Breaks Out in Georgia

Moscow and Tbilisi are still officially at war a year and a half
after Russian troops rolled into the breakaway Georgian republics of
South Ossetia and Abkhazia and declared them independent. But quietly,
with minimal fanfare on both sides, peace is breaking out. A crucial
border crossing reopened last month, direct flights have recommenced,
and Russians have begun issuing more visas to Georgian nationals.

The reason for this sudden warming of relations? In large part, the
Olympic spirit of peace–or at least Russia’s fervent desire to make
the 2014 Winter Olympics in Sochi a trouble-free success. With the
Olympic banner now passed from Canada to Russia, the Kremlin wants
to do everything possible to ensure that there won’t be any more
flare-ups over Abkhazia, just 25 miles away from Sochi.

That means soothing differences with Georgia and giving Tbilisi an
economic stake in keeping the peace by allowing cross-border trade,
once a mainstay of the Georgian economy. Opening the border also
helps Russia’s main Caucasian ally, Armenia, whose only road access to
Russia is via Georgia and which found itself also blockaded by default.

Yerevan has been begging Moscow to open the Georgian road, as the
prospects of an opening of the Armenian-Turkish border are receding
despite an agreement reached last year. At present, landlocked Armenia
can trade only with two of its four neighbors, Iran and Georgia, with
the borders closed to Turkey and Azerbaijan since 1992. Turkey has
dialed back on its commitment to open the border in part because of a
U.S. congressional Foreign Affairs Committee resolution recognizing
the Armenian genocide, as well as pressure from Azerbaijan, which
wants an Armenian withdrawal from the enclave of Nagorno-Karabakh.

But of more immediate concern to Moscow is the prospect of
terror attacks from the North Caucasus, which is also in Sochi’s
neighborhood. Last week the International Olympic Committee expressed
confidence that Russia would be able to make the games secure, and
on Monday Prime Minister Vladimir Putin formed a security committee
to oversee preparations for Sochi’s Olympics. This week the chief of
Russia’s Federal Security Service (FSB) announced that it had arrested
or killed 170 militants in the region this year, and had identified
the masterminds of the recent suicide bombings on the Moscow metro
and in Dagestan.

But to really ensure a peaceful Olympics, President Dmitry Medvedev
will have to do a lot more than let Russian security forces continue
business as usual in the Moscow-controlled North Caucasus, arresting
and murdering suspects at will. Medvedev’s challenge is not only
to pacify his empire’s most restive corner but the whole explosive
neighborhood as well. Making a quiet peace with Georgia is one
important step toward that goal.