BENEFITS OF TURKEY FOR OPENING THE BORDER WITH ARMENIA
Armen Hareyan
HULIQ.com
nefits-turkey-opening-border-armenia
April 19 2010
SC
The overarching view is that Armenia stands to benefit more when
Turkey opens the border, which it has closed unilaterally in early
1990s due to its support for Azerbaijan. However, a deep analysis shows
that Turkey will benefit from the open border with Armenia as much as
Armenia itself. In fact, it meets Azerbaijan’s national interest too.
At least three benefits for Turkey
The first benefit that Turkey will gain from ratifying the two
protocols signed with Armenia and opening its border for trade is
an improved image in Europe and a positive contribution to its EU
aspirations.
Observers say that today’s election results in Cyprus that made a hard
liner Dervis Eroglu the winner and the third president of Turkish
Republic of Northern Cyprus (KKTC) is a serious setback to Turkey’s
EU aspirations. They believe that Eroglu may bring the peace talks
with the Greek Cypriots to a deadlock damaging Turkey’s image among
EU countries. KKTC is only recognized by Turkey. Even Azerbaijan has
not recognized it. Turkey may now feel the need to score a positive
point in its relations with Armenia to balance Cypriot setback.
The second benefit of Turkey from opening the border with Armenia is
the gain of an alternative and reliable route that will transport
energy from Central Asia via Azerbaijan-Armenia-Turkey route to
Europe. This can also be achived through Georgia, bur the 2008 Georgian
Russian war showed that this country is not a reliable and safe route
for carrying energy. The shortest route of Nabucco Gas Pipeline,
plans of which are not moving anywhere, cross through Armenia. The
current two options go through Georgia and Iran. The first is not
reliable and the second is not acceptable for the West.
If Nabucco is realized that would make Turkey an important transit
energy country for the European markets. Nabucco would have better
chances of becoming a reality if Turkey had a normal relations with
Armenia and asked Azerbaijan to do the same.
The third benefit for Turkey is the development of its Eastern
provinces. The Eastern Anatolia is not like Istanbul or Bursa. The
economic difference between Turkey’s Western and Eastern provinces are
like hills and valleys. Having an opportunity to trade with Armenia
will help Turkey’s Eastern regions as much as the Armenian economy. If
only few million people stand to benefit from Armenia (the population
of which is 3.5 million), the lives of tens of millions of Turks and
Kurds will be transformed when they do direct trade with Armenia.
These people will benefit from an increased traffic from Istanbul
to Yerevan. They will be a link of East-West and Russia-Middle East
trade routes.
The problem with Azerbaijan
Azerbaijan and Turkey share the same way of thinking about the foreign
policy when it comes to dealing with a neighbor. The belief is this:
close your border and pressure your neighbor, create additional
economic difficulties so the neighbor, under pressure makes
compromises. Never mind, that Azerbaijan started the war again the
people of Nagorno Karabakh. This policy certainly did not work after
the First World War and did not work with Armenia either. Instead
of pressuring Armenians toward making compromises those blockades,
criticized by the international community, pushed the Christian
Armenians to further distrust Azerbaijan and renewed the memory of
the Armenian genocide, which Turkey denies.
When Azerbaijan talks about Nagorno Karabakh it only speaks of its
territorial integrity. When Turkey talks about the conflict between
Armenia and Azerbaijan it only speaks of the need for the Armenians
to make concessions against Azerbaijan. None of these countries seem
to care about the UN Charter on people’s right to self determination.
None of these countries have voiced their care that these people have
felt oppressed in Azerbaijan and their rights need to be respected.
Thus, Turkey says it’s very difficult to ratify the normalization
protocols with Armenia and open the border because it does not want to
hurt Azerbaijan. Instead, Turkey’s foreign minister Mr. Ahmet Davutoglu
that today travels to Baku, could ask the president of Azerbaijan to
show more care and understanding for the Nagorno Karabakh people’s
right to self-determination. The same way Kosovo’s rights were
respected and the Balkans have peace today with open communications
and restoring trust.
If you want your opponent to make a compromise one needs to build
trust. All involved nations should restore the trust. It is restored
when the communication lines are open and trust restoration is
encouraged by all leaderships. How can the societies in Armenia,
Azerbaijan and Turkey trust each other when the borders are closed
and there is no communication.
Keeping closed borders with Armenia has not solved any problems in
the past 20 years: neither for Turkey nor for Azerbaijan. But both of
these countries could and should show leadership the reaches beyond
emotions and open their borders with Armenia, encourage communication
and build trust. At least that would take the enmity among the people
away from the table. Then the parties could sit down and continue
the negotiations having one less burden to carry toward the solution:
the mistrust.