Today’s Zaman, Turkey
April 18 2010

US meetings reinvigorate Turkish-Armenian reconciliation

The Turkish leadership has received much praise from around the world
for its attempts to rescue Turkish-Armenian reconciliation efforts,
which have entered their death throes, in Washington this week.

The primary obstacle to the peace talks moving forward is their being
conditioned on the resolution of the disputed Nagorno-Karabakh
conflict. Turkey set the conflict as a precondition to ratifying the
protocols on the normalization of relations and establishing
diplomatic ties between it and Armenia — a move Armenia vehemently
rejected with the assertion that it is stifling the whole process.
The Turkish-Armenian rapprochement talks are being conducted
confidentially, including their Washington chapter, leading to scant
media coverage on the sidelines of the Nuclear Security Summit, which
took place on April 12-13.

`There are renewed expectations of hope that the process of
Turkish-Armenian `normalization’ is back on track,’ Richard
Giragosian, director of the Armenian Center for National and
International Studies (ACNIS), told Sunday’s Zaman, adding that the
meeting represented the `last chance’ to salvage the stalled
Turkish-Armenian protocols, which became deadlocked since the
beginning of this year. Noting that although the specific results from
the Washington meetings have yet to be released, the expert said many
see signs that the foreign ministers of both countries are now working
to find a way around the stalled protocols and are struggling to find
a new alternative path to overcome the deadlocked protocols, which are
now virtually stuck in the Turkish Parliament.

Speaking to Sunday’s Zaman, Efe Ã?aman from Yalova University said
problems between Turkey and Armenia are not acute but chronic. For
this reason, he said, it is not correct to wait to achieve a lasting
solution in a short period. `First of all, there are efforts to
complete confidence-building measures. At this point, Turkey is an
important actor both in economic and geopolitical terms that Armenia
cannot ignore,’ Ã?aman said.

Global Political Trends Center (GPoT) Director Mensur Akgün said in an
interview with Sunday’s Zaman that he believes the meeting in the US
may in fact untangle the reconciliation knot. He said he believes the
three countries involved — Turkey, Armenia and Azerbaijan — will all
benefit from the current situation.

Noting that the government’s job is truly difficult in this sense,
Ã?aman said regardless of this, to gain a tool, Turkey needs to
partially open the Turkish-Armenian border and gain an opportunity to
use the carrot-and-stick tactic in its foreign policy. As there is
nothing for Armenia to lose in this status quo, he stressed, Turkey
does not have any sanctions (stick).

Speaking about Sarksyan’s statements, Akgün said he understands his
position, adding that these steps may increase the chances of the US
president terming the Ottoman-era killings of Armenians as genocide,
which is a risk for the Armenian president.

Another leg of the so-called genocide-protocols-Karabakh triangle is
Azerbaijan’s opposition. It was not invited to the nuclear summit, and
its reaction was furious. Noting that DavutoÄ?lu will soon visit Baku,
Akgün said the trip will also serve to lessen Azerbaijan’s opposition.

He also claimed that in line with the ever-changing nature of
politics, Turkey may alter its promise to include the Nagorno-Karabakh
precondition. Pointing to ongoing negotiations between Armenia and
Azerbaijan over the disputed Nagorno-Karabakh territory, Akgün said
the sides have agreed on most terms of the Madrid Principles to solve
the conflict. `But normalization between Turkey and Armenia needs to
move forward even in if there is no breakthrough in Karabakh. If they
never make peace between each other, Turkey and Armenia will not be
able to maintain the status quo forever, either,’ Akgün concluded.

And in some ways, Giragosian said, it was actually helpful that
Azerbaijan was not invited to the recent summit in Washington,
ensuring that Baku could not bring unwelcome pressure on Ankara at
this delicate stage. `This is not to say that Turkey is ignoring
Azerbaijani interests, but rather is pursuing a new policy of
engagement with Armenia that is now based on Turkish national
interests, not simply to please the Americans and not to appease the
Azerbaijanis,’ the expert said. Noting that the whole process of
normalization with Armenia has been driven by Turkey’s recognition of
the need to correct a failed policy, Giragosian said closed borders
and a lack of diplomatic relations is not a policy and that Turkey
needs more, not fewer options regarding Armenia and the region.

18 April 2010, Sunday
MAHÄ°R ZEYNALOV Ä°STANBUL