EROGLU VICTORY WORRIES CYPRUS GOVERNMENT
Delphine Strauss

FT
April 19 2010 23:15

Turkish Cypriots’ election of a nationalist leader who has pledged to
resist compromise with the Greek Cypriot south could cause "serious
problems" in talks to reunify the divided island, the Cypriot
government said on Monday.

Dervis Eroglu, prime minister since 2009, won 50.4 per cent of the
vote in Sunday’s elections to replace the incumbent, Mehmet Ali Talat,
as president in northern Cyprus, which has been split from the south
since the Turkish intervention in 1974 and is recognised as a state
only by Ankara.

"Taking into account the declared positions of Mr Eroglu against a
federation, and for the establishment of two independent states in
Cyprus, this could cause very serious problems to the negotiations,"
a government spokesman told reporters.

The outcome of the talks is crucial to Turkey’s European Union
membership bid, since Greek Cypriots, who rejected a UN-brokered
peace plan in 2004, represent Cyprus in the EU and will veto Turkish
accession while the island remains divided.

Turkey also needs a solution on Cyprus to support its claims to be a
leading actor in regional diplomacy. Ankara’s policy of "zero problems
with neighbours", and an aspiration to mediate in regional conflicts,
have been undermined by its inability to resolve problems closest to
home, with Cyprus and Armenia.

Ankara, which had barely hidden its preference for Mr Talat,
congratulated Mr Eroglu on his victory and underlined its continued
support for a settlement. A statement by the foreign ministry also
emphasised its view that Mr Talat had brought talks "to a point where
a solution is within reach".

But Mr Eroglu’s victory reflects voters’ frustration at Mr Talat’s
failure to conclude a settlement with his Greek Cypriot counterpart
Demetris Christofias. The two men, friends and fellow socialists,
have met more than 70 times in the last two years but are still far
from agreeing a blueprint for reunification to put to referenda.

Mr Eroglu, who will rely on Ankara for subsidies of around $500m
a year, said on Monday negotiations could resume in May. He earlier
told supporters celebrating his win: "No-one should expect me to flee
the negotiating table".

But his right-wing UBP party has historically favoured two separate
states – unacceptable to Greek Cypriots – not the UN formula of a
federation with two autonomous zones and a central administration.

Mr Eroglu also promised voters he would resist any deal that would
allow Greek Cypriots to return to homes in the north, or require
the expulsion of Turkish settlers. The 2004 Annan Plan, accepted by
Turkish Cypriots, and rejected in the south, envisaged the return of
some territory to Greek Cypriots and restitution for property.

Ayla Gurel, researcher at the Cyprus office of the International
Peace Research Institute, said voters had lost faith in Mr Talat’s
promises to end northern Cyprus’ isolation, and no longer believed
the United Nations or European Union offered any protection. "There
is a sentiment … that they have been cheated by the international
community since 2004," she said.

One of the biggest causes of anger was the EU’s failure to ease
northern Cyprus’ economic isolation by granting it direct access to
European markets. The direct trade regulation was blocked by Greek
Cypriots and, although recently revived in Brussels, still faces many
hurdles before adoption. In response, Turkey has refused to open its
ports to traffic from the south – a stand-off that led Greek Cypriots
to veto many areas of Turkey’s EU accession talks.