RUSSIAN EXPERT SAYS WHEN KARABAKH CONFLICT RESOLUTION CAN SEE PROGRESS

Today
66607.html
April 22 2010
Azerbaijan

Day.Az interview with Chairman of the Council for the
Mediterranean-Black Sea Problems at the Russian Academy of Sciences
Alla Yazikova.

In your opinion, what we will the fate of the Armenia-Turkey and
U.S.-Turkey relations following the recent Washington talks?

The American side was very active in these talks because
Sargsyan-Erdogan meeting was held on the initiative of Americans.

American diplomacy interferes with problems in the South Caucasus,
because it tries to solve its own problems, I dare say, a little later.

Currently, the United States wants the Armenian-Turkish protocols to
be signed as soon as possible.

However, before tripping to the U.S, Erdogan reiterated the linkage
between the signing process and Armenia’s withdrawal from Azerbaijan’s
occupied lands. He also noted that the current situation is not
conducive to ensuring that the protocols were signed, referring to
expectations from U.S. President’s annual April 24 speech on the
so-called "Armenian genocide".

The talks finally took place. But parties failed to reach agreement.

They only agreed to reduce the level of talks to the level of foreign
ministers. Surely, the Turkish parliament will not consider the
protocols, at least, until the end of April.

Another question is how the U.S. will react to this. We already know
that the resolution on so-called "Armenian genocide" was stuck at
the committee level of the U.S. Congress. And despite efforts by the
Armenian diaspora, both Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama stated the
resolution will not advance further. I believe they will stay there
if nothing extraordinary happens before the end of April.

In my opinion, we witness a classic situation where each of the
parties involved in the process pursue their own interests.

Given the activity of Americans, one could argue that it is due to
tensions surrounding Iran, a difficult situation in Central Asia and
Afghanistan. The United States is interested in creating a certain
controlled corridor through the South Caucasus. In this sense, the
region becomes very important for them not only for its energy sources,
but also for its strategic location.

In your opinion, will Barack Obama utter the word "genocide" on
April 24?

I do not think so. There is a variety of substitution for this term.

The Armenian language has a term such as "great massacre". You can
use this term, or, in extreme cases, to say that it was a kind of
ethnic cleansing.

But Armenia needs exactly "genocide"…

You know, you can feel like a lot, but you not always can achieve
them. This is also the case with the Armenian side. It is important for
the U.S. to maintain good relations both with Armenia and Azerbaijan
in order to create a strategic corridor. Turkey in this matter is in
the role of conductor of the U.S. interests. And I’m sure that for the
American side it does not matter what actually happened in Turkey about
a hundred years ago. It only need corridor that I spoke about above.

But in this case, the Americans must make every effort to resolve
the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict…

I have no access to some special documents of the Russian side, but
as far as I understand, there is some agreement between Russia and the
U.S. It seems that we are witnessing a kind of division of functions.

In this sense, Russia could be more active, and certainly will
promote resolution to the Karabakh conflict based on updated Madrid
principles. I see no other way to solve the problem, but a phased
solution on which Azerbaijan insists.

Besides Russia and the U.S., Iran has also begun to get involved in
resolving the Karabakh problem. Iran it is still a novice in this
issue, and it is unlikely to achieve remarkable successes. Russia
has good relations with Turkey, Armenia and Azerbaijan. So, the
Russian-American cooperation in the region could benefit all parties
to the conflict. However, America’s active intervention in the region
will certainly meet Russia’s opposition. There should be limit in
all affairs, but the parties do not always abide by this principle.

So, we can witness real progress in Karabakh issue soon?

It can be expected if all the parties involved in the conflict one
way or another understand the limit of their capabilities. This is
important, I think. Why there have been no real changes so far?

Because when some process begins, some parties cannot realistically
assess the limit of their capabilities. If Americans push the issue
of ratification of the Armenian-Turkish protocols without taking into
account occupation of Azerbaijani lands, nothing good will come of it.

Let us hope that America’s policy would be competent. It must be so
under the current White House administration…