YEREVAN SUSPENDS RECONCILIATION PROCESS WITH TURKEY
Marianna Grigoryan

EurasiaNet
April 22 2010
NY

Two days before Armenia commemorates Ottoman Turkey’s World War I-era
slayings of ethnic Armenians, President Serzh Sargsyan on April 22
called on Armenia’s parliament to "suspend" the process to ratify
reconciliation protocols with Turkey.

Sargyan described the current stage of relations with Turkey as
"exhausted." A senior Armenian politician, meanwhile, indicated that
the agreement may be recalled from parliament.

In a televised speech to the nation, Sargsyan, who has long backed
normalizing ties with Turkey, took issue with what he termed
"preconditions" set by Ankara for a peace deal with Armenia. These
preconditions, the president contended, caused the process to stall.

"Preconditions" refers primarily to recent comments made by Turkish
Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan, who indicated that Turkey would
not normalize relations with Armenia unless Yerevan made progress in
peace negotiations with Turkish ally Azerbaijan concerning the future
of Nagorno-Karabakh. [For background see EurasiaNet’s archive].

"Armenia shall retain her signature under the protocols because we
desire to maintain the existing momentum for normalizing relations,
because we desire peace," a transcript of the speech published on
Sargsyan’s presidential website stated. "Our political objective
of normalizing relations between Armenia and Turkey remains valid,
and we shall consider moving forward when we are convinced that there
is a proper environment in Turkey, and there is leadership in Ankara
ready to re-engage in the normalization process."

Armenia’s governing coalition – Sargsyan’s Republican Party of Armenia,
the Prosperous Armenia Party and Orinats Yerkir (Rule of Law) Party
— earlier in the day declared that Turkey’s refusal to ratify the
agreement "without preconditions" means that "there’s no sense in
further continuing the process of their ratification at this stage"
in Armenia’s National Assembly.

Republican Party of Armenia spokesperson Eduard Sharmazanov told
EurasiaNet.org that the April 22 announcement does not signal a break
with the normalization process in full. "We are not withdrawing from
the process; we are waiting for a real answer from Turkey — yes
or no, but not an imitation [of real steps toward reconciliation],"
Sharmazanov said.

The chair of parliament’s European Integration Parliamentary Committee,
Naira Zohrabian, told EurasiaNet.org that President Sargsyan’s recent
meetings with coalition leaders suggest that the protocols will be
recalled from the National Assembly. Zohrabian, who is also a senior
member of the Prosperous Armenia Party, did not elaborate.

A Turkish Foreign Ministry spokesperson told reporters in Ankara
that Turkish leaders were considering how to respond to Sargsyan’s
announcement. Prime Minister Erdogan later repeated Turkey’s commitment
to the reconciliation process.

Sharmazanov claimed that the international community will understand
Armenia’s move. He suggested that the Turkish position had the
indirect effect of complicating efforts by the United States, Russia
and France, the three co-chairs of the Minsk Group, to make progress
in the Karabakh peace process. [For background see the Eurasia
Insight archive].

"I think the international community will interpret our step as
normal since the Armenian side does not recall its signature [of the
protocols], but rather suspends the process," Sharmazanov asserted.

"In this case, Turkey has no way to escape."

One Yerevan-based analyst questioned the government’s logic. "Trying
to correct a mistake through another mistake is wrong," said Tatul
Hakobyan, and analyst with the Civilitas Foundation and a former
journalist who has written extensively on the Karabakh war.

"The Armenian side shouldn’t have removed discussion of the protocols
from the National Assembly agenda, but should have left them there to
turn into dust," Hakobyan said. "Now the Turks will start to blame
Armenia for spoiling the [reconciliation] process, while Armenia
won’t be able to persuade the international community that it’s not
Armenia’s fault the process didn’t succeed."

Suren Surenyants, a senior member of the political board of the
opposition Republic Party, also believes the international community
may react negatively to Armenia’s move. Though senior Turkish officials
have repeatedly made statements about "preconditions," the Turkish
side never declared it had suspended parliamentary discussion of the
protocols, he noted.

"Yerevan was the first to voice this statement," Surenyants said.

"Actually, the Turkish authorities achieved their aim by driving
Armenia to take an irrational position. It turns out now that not
only Turkey, but the Yerevan government as well puts preconditions
[on the deal by] stipulating ratification of the protocols based only
on Turkey’s position."

A more understandable move for the international community would
be if Armenia had allowed the vote on the protocols to proceed and
succeed or fail based on the agreement’s own merits, he added.

Zohrabian said the Prosperous Armenia Party would have responded
negatively to any National Assembly decision to ratify the agreement.

"I think the coalition made a very correct move by suspending the
process," Zohrabian said. "This is a political break for Turkey to
determine its position, whether it wants to follow a civilized path,
or whether it prefers irresponsible declarations and reckless schemes."