THE CYPRUS QUESTION FROM NOW ON

Hurriyet
April 23 2010
Turkey

Approximately 80,000 people living in the north of Cyprus have elected
DerviÅ~_ Eroglu as the president of the self-proclaimed Turkish
Republic of Northern Cyprus. Eroglu didn’t win the election, Mehmet
Ali Talat lost it. So did the European Union and Turkey. Despite
all the counter-claims, what Eroglu understands from negotiations
is to transform the current situation into the full independence of
northern Cyprus. Therefore, this election result will create results
way beyond important.

As far as Turkey’s ruling Justice and Development Party, or AKP,
government is concerned, the result can be interpreted as the latest
fiasco on consecutive initiatives launched lately. First normalization
with Armenia, and then the democratic initiative to settle the Kurdish
problem and now a solution in Cyprus has failed. The Cyprus question,
which has been underestimated by Turkish foreign policy so far, has
become more critical since Sunday evening. Turkey is continuing to
lose time and money in Cyprus for the sake of nationalist ambitions.

Three scenarios

What will happen now? The first scenario is the collapse of peace
talks and the start of a permanent separation process. That means
northern Cyprus effectively becoming the 82nd province of Turkey,
the de facto end of Turkey-EU membership negotiations and the Turkish
Armed Forces, or TSK, being settled in the island permanently.

Economic sanctions that the EU has applied to northern Cyprus from
the beginning and the settlers from Anatolia have made northern
Cyprus a totally dependent piece of land. Such a burden, including
military costs, will not hurt Turkey’s economy, but obviously it has
a political price tag on it: The TSK going back to barracks in Turkey
will continue to be involved in politics in northern Cyprus on a de
facto basis. And with the end of EU talks, the present perception
both inside and outside Turkey that "Turkey is turning its back to
the West" will be reinforced.

On the other hand, the Republic of Cyprus in the south will not be
affected much by this scenario. Greek Cypriots who are the member of
the EU, having excellent relations with the Arab World and the Orthodox
World starting with Russia, having expertise in offshore banking and
attracting 3 million tourists a year could bear the consequences of
a permanent separation.

In the face of this black scenario, a second possibility for Turkey
is to make unilateral compromises to pave the way for solution and
take necessary steps in this direction. President Abdullah Gul keeps
saying that it is unacceptable that the Cyprus question could handicap
Turkey. In fact, Turkey’s international ambitions are more important
than Cyprus. Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan, despite all his
nationalist rhetoric, repeated over the weekend that the talks must
go on. Along this policy line, Eroglu may be forced to remain at
the table and stick with current negotiation parameters. And for
the sake of EU membership talks, Turkey can open air and sea ports
unilaterally. However this scenario is not realistic in advance of
the 2011 elections in Turkey. Let’s not forget that the opposition
will provide unconditional support to Eroglu.

Therefore, a third scenario could be envisaged. Prime Minister Erdogan
and the president of the Republic of Cyprus, Dimitris Christofias,
have already voiced multilateral processes. In addition to the two
sides in Cyprus, the names of Turkey, Greece, the EU, the United
Nations Secretariat and the five permanent members of the U.N. General
Council have been uttered so far. Probably, the remedy will be found
in this option. If a solution is desired in Cyprus, which is a big
obstacle for all concerned, it is nonsense to keep talks limited
to the two leaders. Considering the fact that Eroglu is incapable
of negotiating and has no intention of doing so, as Christofias is
facing a great deal of trouble in the governing coalition, the "two
negotiator formula" has no future.

In advance of Prime Minister Erdogan’s official visit to the Greek
capital Athens on May 14, no progress should be expected. But
the visit could trigger a new process suggesting a comprehensive
approach to all existing feuds between Turks and Greeks, including
the Cyprus conflict. In the meantime, a serious and comprehensive
crisis management is needed on the island.