FANTASIES WITHOUT BORDERS: ARMENIA SEES UNITED STATES AND TURKEY AS INSTIGATORS OF WAR

Today
April 23 2010
Azerbaijan

The frost is getting much, much worse. Armenia is seriously discussing
Turkish-U.S. attempts to provoke Azerbaijan and resume hostilities.

The first symptoms of the disease appeared prior to talks in Washington
between the presidents and foreign ministers of Turkey, Armenia and
the United States.

Yerevan invented a scenario, according to which Ankara would make every
effort to ensure that Azerbaijan attacks Armenia if the Washington
talks fail, thus forcing Turkey to try to bank the fire.

The logic is simple. Turkey thinks Azerbaijan would force Armenia to
become flexible in the negotiations with both Baku and Ankara.

Meanwhile, Armenia boasted the "invincibility" of its army, which can
allegedly withstand a blow from Azerbaijan, launch a counterattack
and win an overwhelming victory, capturing even more territory.

Following the failed talks in Washington, Armenia claims that
Azerbaijan now has another "provoker." This time, it is the United
States, which is also a OSCE Minsk Group co-chair. Allegedly, the
Americans have decided to side with Azerbaijan from here on in.

Armenia believes that Washington is dreaming of radical changes in the
South Caucasus and sees no other way out than war. Armenia supposes
that Azerbaijan will shape the region in the way most advantageous
for the United States.

Terrible logic, isn’t it? In a similar way, Armenian analysts can
figure out what would happen to Russia. And, why not, if they have
such an unbridled imagination?

In the meantime, the reality contradicts Yerevan’s suppositions. Let’s
start with Turkey.

Ankara has obligations to NATO. Besides, as a NATO member, it cannot
get directly involved in conflicts. NATO, as is well known, is not
involved in the Karabakh issue and is not willing to get involved
(except indirectly by promoting the peace process).

Resuming large-scale hostilities between Armenia and Azerbaijan
can only exacerbate Turkey’s headache in the region. It is worth
remembering that in August 2008, the Turkish leadership advanced
an initiative called the "Platform for Cooperation and Stability in
the Caucasus." The platform has not yet been approved, just like the
Armenian-Turkish protocols that emerged later.

To get involved in another war (either directly or indirectly) will not
benefit Turkey at all. Of course, Turkey wants the Karabakh conflict
to be resolved through peace, not war. Otherwise, it would not have
engaged in various and often risky diplomatic games with covenants
and protocols.

How could Armenia invent U.S. "provocation?" The brain of a Homo
sapiens is unable to comprehend why the United States needs this,
and why Azerbaijan should yield to White House provocation.

The United States simply has no reason to do this at all.

Armenian thinkers need to know that Azerbaijan does not need any
provocation. The country has enough reasons to start a war. Mediators
brought a document fit for both sides to the negotiations table after
years of talks. Azerbaijan approved them, while Yerevan has been slow
to do so.

In the meantime, Armenia is the major provoker. Let Armenia accept
the aforementioned document and eliminate any chance of war. No
"third powers" are involved here.