WHAT WILL THE FATE OF ARMENIA-TURKEY DIALOGUE BE AFTER SARGSYAN’S STATEMENTS?
Today
April 23 2010
Azerbaijan
Day.Az interview with Head of the Conflict Science Department at the
Azerbaijan-based Institute of Peace and Democracy Arif Yunus.
In your opinion, what does the Armenian government’s decision to
suspend ratification of the Armenia-Turkey protocols mean?
Of course, this is consequence of the Washington meetings which were
a complete failure and where America put pressure on both Armenia
and Turkey.
Each party pursued its own goals there. But I do not see any tragedy
about Sargsyan’s statement, because, in fact, it is quite a common
situation. For some reason we rush for the final result, assuming
that ratification of protocols and opening of borders should happen
quickly. Actualy, it is a process which will often see force majeure
situation. This is like the process of Karabakh negotiations which has
seen crises, the shooting in parliament and many other things so far.
But the process continued, because it was understood that a war is
the only alternative. We witness the same case at the moment. The
sides are going to make more and more statements.
I do not exclude that in the future the Turkish side may take a
similar step. Nevertheless, neither Turkey nor Armenia will dare
to halt the ratification process completely since each of them is
interested in this. I would even say that Armenia is more interested
than Turkey. This move by Sargsyan is a kind of blackmail. But Turkey
believes it does not need to hurry. Of course, it will ratify the
protocols. But this will be done in the right time.
Situation in Armenia is different. Sargsyan does not enjoy strong
position inside the country and faces constant pressure because of
these protocols. That’s why he wants to speed up this process. And
this step is merely an attempt to exert pressure on Turkey. The
United States will try to play a role in this matter because it is
very interested in the process. So, I do not think that the process
is completely dead. It will continue.
Why did he decide not to listen to calls by Obama, Sarkozy and Medvedev
not to pause, and continue the process?
A lot of things may happen during any process. Serious pressure or
even sanctions are last resort undertaken at the last minute. No one
will put pressure on Armenia at the moment. It’s voluntary on both
sides of the process of rapprochement. Armenians will be persuaded
again and after a while everything will come again in motion and the
negotiations will continue.
Sargsyan also said that he was confident he took the only right
decision that meets national interests of Armenia. Is this a trick
of some sort? What does he have in mind?
When saying national interests, he has in mind that recognition of the
so-called "genocide" is the issue number one for Armenia and, secondly,
they are against linking establishing relations with Turkey with the
Nagorno-Karabakh conflict. In reality, Turkey also does not want to
spoil relations with Azerbaijan, and therefore tries to somehow link
the two processes. Armenia is totally against this.
Armenian President means these two points when saying national
interests of Armenia.
Can the ongoing events impact the Armenia-Azerbaijan talks?
There can be no direct impact. First, Armenia has not given a clear
answer whether it accepts or rejects the updated version of the
Madrid principles.
Generally, we may draw some analogy between Sargsyan’s current
statement and what we often see in the course of the Nagorno-Karabakh
process. Because when the talk were suspended or stalled because of
Armenia, Azerbaijan announced it is possible to resort to alternative
ways to solve the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict, that is, by force of
arms. It is a specific mechanism to influence the opposite side.
Armenia is using precisely this method to exert pressure on Turkey in
order to somewhat change course of negotiations on the normalization
of Armenian-Turkish relations. Armenia is unlikely to succeed one
way or another. The ratification process will be restored, anyway.