IS YEAR-OLD ARMENIAN-TURKISH PROCESS OVER?
Karine Ter-Sahakyan

PanARMENIAN.Net
April 23, 2010

Reaction of the international community to Serzh Sargsyan’s address was
predictable. Both the United States and Europe are fed up with Turkish
blackmail and her inability to adequately behave in serious matters.

Armenian-Turkish process that started exactly a year ago is now over,
or in the words of the Armenian President – suspended. However,
what really matters is the essence and not the definitions given
to this process. In the current reality it is too early to speak of
normalization of Armenian-Turkish relations, and there are several
reasons for it. Let us leave aside the question of Turkish recognition
of the Armenian Genocide in the Ottoman Empire, as it is, so to speak,
a permanent stumbling block between the two countries.

More and more serious become geopolitical changes in the region
and the internal political processes going on both in Turkey and in
Armenia. In this respect, the ruling Justice and Development Party
(AKP) is in a much inferior position than the Republican Party of
Armenia (RPA). By and large, the Republican Party of Armenia is fairly
strong, and yet there is no single political force in the country
that could replace it. For Yerevan such state of affairs is the best,
because whoever comes to power, Armenia’s attitude towards Turkey will
remain unchanged. Under the first President Levon Ter-Petrosyan there
were made attempts to nullify both the issue of recognition of the
Armenian Genocide and perception of Turkey as an enemy or a malevolent
neighbor, which constantly poses a threat to our national security.

But fortunately, Levon Ter-Petrosyan was not able, or rather, was
not allowed to put his plan into operation.

As for the position of AKP, Prime Minister Erdogan is undoubtedly
losing popularity, and under such circumstances improving relations
with Armenia could be fatal for him. Turkish opposition, discontented
with the Premier’s foreign and domestic policies, could easily
overthrow the unwanted Premier, by receiving assistance from the army.

Coups in Turkey are not a novelty, and not once have we written
about that.

Response of the international community to Serzh Sargsyan’s address
was predictable. Both the United States and Europe are fed up with
Turkish blackmail and her inability to behave adequately in serious
matters. It wouldn’t be a great surprise if Erdogan was reminded all
his recent statements, starting from empty threats issued to Israel and
the Armenian illegal immigrants and ending with the outright support
of Iran. It is especially the last point that is unacceptable for
the world community. Unacceptable are also the attempts to drive a
wedge between Armenia and the Diaspora. A few days before the recent
statement of Serzh Sargsyan, the Turkish Foreign Ministry issued a
circular note to all the embassies, in which it explained how Turkish
officials and diplomats worldwide should react to the Armenian Diaspora
and Genocide-related issues. Here are some of the suggestions that
Turkish Foreign Ministry offered: "Contact and maintain ties with
representatives of the Armenian lobby in your country of residence;
invite them to your events, visit their events and try to explain
Turkey’s position; in the country of residence also contact Armenian
diplomats and invite them to your events; establish contacts with
the NGOs of your countries of residence and try to explain the 1915
events; concentrate on the protocols signed with Armenia and remind the
point of establishing a historical commission to study the genocide;
highlight that the Armenian-Turkish normalization will contribute
to the establishment of peace in the Caucasus; speak of the need
to settle the Karabakh conflict in order to establish peace in the
region. However, most "striking" was Item 3: "Representatives of the
Armenian Diaspora are divided into three groups. The first group have
done business on the issue of the Genocide; the second group includes
people who come from Turkey and still have ties with this country and
the third group is that category of people who are hostile towards
Turkey. Contact the representatives of all these groups and invite
them to visit Turkey."

And all this is said and written shortly before the 95th anniversary
of the Armenian Genocide. However, there is one more aspect of Turkish
counter-propaganda which is somehow warmly received by the Armenian
side. These are the actions like "Armenians, we apologize", Turkish
visits to the Memorial of the Armenian Genocide victims. All this is
done in order to make the Armenians believe that Turkey is not such
an awful country and simply wants "zero" relations with neighbors. We
deliberately do not mention the Karabakh conflict, as it is discussed
in quite a different place, and from quite a different view.

If we are to sum up, it can be noted that Armenia, strange as it may
seem, has won another round, which can be considered a preliminary
finish. If Turkey anyway agrees to continue the process, it is to prove
that pressure from the United States has worked. If not… well, what
can’t be cured must be endured. Throughout this story the position
of Russia has remained obscure – Armenian side received no distinct
comments from the RF Foreign Ministry, which suggests that Russian
diplomacy has remained in 1915 when a whole people was wiped out
because of her connivance and tacit consent. However, we would like
to believe that times have changed.