TIGRAN JRBASHYAN: CURRENT GROWTH RATES OF ARMENIAN GDP TO BE MAINTAINED IN FIRST HALF YEAR AND TO DECELERATE IN SECOND HALF YEAR

ArmInfo
23.04.2010

ArmInfo. The current growth rates of Armenian GDP will be maintained
in the first half year 2010 and will decelerate in second half year,
Development Manager of Ameriabank Tigran Jrbashyan said during a
press-conference today.

According to his forecast, by the end of 2010 the economic growth level
in Armenia will be higher than the one forecasted by the government,
but no lower than the current one. Jrbashyan pointed out that under
the current conditions inflation will seriously pressurize GDP. "In
the first half year the inflationary pressure will be more than over
the second half year, taking into account the fact that starting
late summer and early autumn inflationary pressure will be declining,
which, in its turn, may lead to the Central Bank’s dampening of the
monetary policy",-he stressed.

Jrbashyan thinks that the stiffening of the CBA monetary policy was a
well-timed response to the inflationary pressure. For the time being
the banks are reacting inadequately to the inflationary pressure.

However, in the next quarters the reduction of the interest rates
will be coordinated and inflation will be curbed. In late Q2-early
Q3 2010 the CB may soften its monetary-credit policy and will stop
raising the rate of refinancing. In the last months, in response
to the CB’s toughening policy, the banks have been forced to reduce
their interest rates.

According to the preliminary report of the National Statistical
Service of Armenia, in Jan-Mar 2010 as compared with Jan-Mar 2009
Armenia’s GDP grew by 5.5%. In Mar 2010 as compared with Feb 2010 it
grew by 43.1%. In Mar 2010 there was 0.8% inflation, in Jan-Mar 2010 –
2.9%. According to the national budget of Armenia, in 2010 Armenia’s
GDP will grow by 1.2%. Apr 13 the Central Bank of Armenia raised the
rate of refinancing from 6.5% to 7%.