U.S.-TURKEY RELATIONS ARE ON THE LINE
Mark Meirowitz
The Hill
key-relations-are-on-the-line
April 23 2010
DC
On April 24, 2010, Armenian Remembrance Day, President Obama will
issue a statement on the events in 1915 concerning Armenians in the
Ottoman Empire. This statement is being awaited with great interest
because the presidential statement on Armenia is seen as a crucial
litmus test to determine where the United States government stands
on this issue, and on America’s relations with Turkey.
On March 4, 2010, the House Committee on Foreign Affairs passed
a non-binding resolution (by the slimmest of margins, 23-22),
urging President Obama to characterize the events in Armenia in
1915 as "genocide" when he issues his statement on April 24, 2010
(Armenian Remembrance Day). The passage of this ill-advised resolution
precipitated a major crisis in U.S.-Turkish relations, including the
recall by Turkey of its ambassador to the United States. So far, the
resolution has not progressed to the full House. The Administration has
apparently been weighing in to prevent the bill from moving forward.
Under the Turkey/Armenia protocols, which provide a process
for the normalization of relations between Turkey and Armenia,
a historical sub-commission will be established "to implement a
dialogue… including an impartial scientific examination of the
historical records and archives to define existing problems and
formulate recommendations" – in other words, to allow an objective
examination of the history of the 1915 events in Armenia. The
historical commission is the proper platform for this discussion
and analysis.
The House Committee on Foreign Affairs, instead of leaving the
analysis of the events in Armenia to the historical commission under
the Protocols, decided to preempt and co-opt this process and become
the decider and arbiter of historical events. Further, the Committee,
which is mandated to consider foreign affairs issues and consequences,
completely abdicated its responsibility, and ignored the significant
foreign affairs impact of the passage of the resolution on Turkey,
a major friend and ally of the United States. Turkey’s Prime Minister
Erdogan, at the recent nuclear summit in Washington, D.C., was right
on target when he said that "history cannot be written in a parliament
or judged by a parliament."
In 2009, on April 24th, in his annual message, Obama used an Armenian
word "Meds Yeghern" to describe the 1915 events, a term which to
Armenians means "genocide" but may also be interpreted to mean a great
tragedy. This approach didn’t really please anyone, but at least the
"genocide" term was not utilized.
This year, for the April 24, 2010, statement, the President needs to
say as little as possible, and certainly not use the term "genocide"
or any term even remotely similar, or this will provoke a very
negative reaction from Turkey. The President’s statement should
support peace between Turkey and Armenia, the ratification of the
Turkey-Armenia protocols by the Turkish and Armenian Parliaments and
especially emphasize the vital importance of the establishment of the
historical sub-commission envisaged by the protocols. The President
should not feel compelled to provide any sort of characterization of
the Armenian events. Like the Foreign Affairs Committee, the President
is not the official arbiter of history, especially when the history
is so contentious and hotly contested.
If the President, on April 24, 2010, uses the term "Genocide" to
describe the events in 1915 in Armenia, this would have a disastrous
effect on Turkish-U.S. relations and could even shut down these
relations for an indefinite period and lead to other serious and
severe repercussions, including the scrapping of the vitally important
Turkey/Armenia Protocols (which also are related to the solution of the
complicated issue of Nagorno-Karabakh). Even if the President does not
explicitly use the term "Genocide" in his statement, the rest of his
statement will be very important. The President knows that Turkey,
a member of NATO, is a major ally and friend of the U.S. and a key
country in a volatile region which includes Iran.
This is a time for Presidential leadership and decisive action.
Avoiding the "genocide" label in the statement will salvage the
relationship between the US and Turkey, allow Turkey and Armenia to
normalize their relations, and put the US-Turkey relationship back
on track, so that the US and Turkey can deal with the many pressing
matters facing them (and the region in which Turkey is located),
especially the possible nuclearization of Iran.
Mark Meirowitz is a business lawyer who also holds a doctorate in
Political Science and has taught Politics, History and Law at colleges
in the NYC Metropolitan area.