RUSSIAN EXPERT: OPENING THE BORDER WITH ARMENIA IS NOT IMPORTANT FOR TURKEY

Today
737.html
April 26 2010
Azerbaijan

Day.Az interview with doctor of political sciences, professor at the
International Political Processes Department of the St. Petersburg
State University Sergey Lantsov.

In your opinion, why U.S. President Barack Obama did not utter the word
"genocide" once again in his annual address to the Armenian Diaspora
in connection with the 1915 events in the Ottoman Empire?

It would be unreasonable for the U.S to uniquely recognize the
"Armenian genocide" because it will affect relations with Turkey
and the situation around Iraq, Iraqi Kurdistan, etc. Obama and
his entourage naturally weighed all the pros and cons, and factors
"against" against saying this word appeared even more. As a result,
on one hand, he did not utter the word "genocide", but did make
mention of those events so that later he will not be blamed for
ignoring this problem.

How will the U.S.-Turkish relations develop from now on?

Nothing radical will happen. As to the U.S.-Turkish relations, there
are many hidden dangers. The policy of the current Turkish government
does not always meet U.S. interests. This, of course, causes some
complications in the relations between Turkey and the U.S., but some
major crisis s is unlikely to emerge.

Regarding U.S. relations with Armenia, they are much less important
for the United States than the relations with Turkey. I see no radical
changes here as well.

May all these developments have any impact on the resolution of the
Karabakh conflict?

Judging from the events that we have witnessed in recent times,
I do not foresee changes in terms of settlement of the Karabakh
conflict. I mean, the recognition or non-recognition of "genocide"
will not influence the settlement process. The Karabakh conflict is
currently frozen, and in order to get things rolling, world politics
or those countries which have direct relevance to the conflict need
to experience major political events.

A couple of days ago Armenian President Serzh Sargsyan announced that
his country suspends ratification of the Armenia-Turkey protocols…

Actually, Armenia is the only one who will lose of this, because it is
more interested in normalizing relations with Turkey, and, above all,
in economic terms. Opening the border with Armenia is not important for
Turkey. Moreover, this country is very sensitive to the events of 1915.

So, there is no need to expect any changes in the Armenia-Turkey
relations in near future?

To be honest, I initially did not believe that some progress is
possible in these relations. There are fundamental differences and
the border is unlikely to reopen until they are resolved.

And how will Russia behave in current situation?

Russia is interested in preserving the status quo. Let me explain. On
one hand, it is necessary to solve the Nagorno-Karabakh problem,
improve relations with Turkey and maintain strong relations with
Armenia and Azerbaijan. However, on the other hand, it needs to
be very careful, because a slight move in one direction or another
can change the balance of forces. In other words, Russia will now
develop relations with Turkey with utmost care so as not to spoil
relations with Armenia and to preserve very important partnership
with Azerbaijan.

From: Emil Lazarian | Ararat NewsPress