"THE TWO SIDES NEED TO MAKE THE LAST PUSH"

news.az
April 26 2010
Azerbaijan

Dennis Sammut News.Az interviews Dennis Sammut, Executive Director
of LINKS.

Can you comment on the decision of the Armenian President to freeze
the dialogue with Turkey?

This decision was regrettable but not unexpected. Both Armenia and
Turkey have found it more difficult to finish the process that they
started in 2008 than they had originally expected. However the work
done in the last two years should not be considered wasted.

Do you see any prospects of normalization of relations between Turkey
and Armenia?

I speak regularly to diplomats and officials of both countries and
I am convinced that both sides remain committed to this process.

Obviously if there is progress in the negotiations over Karabakh
between Armenia and Azerbaijan the chances are that the Armenia-Turkey
reconciliation process will move much faster. I believe it is in
everybody’s interest that this should happen

Does the decision of President Sargsyan mean that Turkey’s peacemaking
activity in the South Caucasus has reached a deadlock?

Turkey is an important player in the region. The commitment that has
been shown by the Turkish government in the last two years to build
peace and co-operation in the South Caucasus is very commendable.

However Turkey has a history in the region also and this means that
Turkey needs to work with other international partners if it wants
to succeed. I think the Turkish government understands this very well.

The Presidents of Azerbaijan and Armenia before their expected
meeting on 9th May in Moscow have in recent days exchanged again
tough statements on the Karabagh problem, showing no willingness for
compromise. Can we talk about possibility of progress soon in the
settlement process?

Of course it is very unfortunate that the two presidents still find it
necessary to use this language in their public pronouncements. It shows
the level of distrust that still exists between the two countries and
the amount of work that still needs to be done. A peaceful settlement
of the Karabakh conflict is within reach. Yet this cannot happen on
its own. The two sides need to make the last push. It is not possible
for the international community to take them where they do not want
to go. This will be counterproductive.

The President of Azerbaijan has held a meeting in the Ministry of
Defense during which he said that the Azerbaijani army is able at
any moment to liberate the occupied lands. What are possibilities of
a new war in the region?

In the current conditions war remains a possibility, and we cannot
exclude it. A War can start because somebody consciously starts it. I
do not think that the governments of either Armenia or Azerbaijan
want to start a war. However sometimes wars start as a result of an
incident, or through misperception. This can happen in the case of
Karabakh very easily because we have a very delicate situation on
the cease fire line, and because the level of confidence between the
sides is very low.

I want also to make a comment about what such a war will mean. The
Minister of Defence of Azerbaijan, General Safir Abayev last week
announced that Azerbaijan now has the capability of hitting targets
in any part of Armenia. I believe him. I also think that Armenia
has a similar capability of hitting targets in Azerbaijan. A future
conflict on Karabakh will be very different from that of 1990-94. The
conflict will affect all the territory of Armenia and Azerbaijan. Let
us not forget what happened in Georgia in 2008. The conflict was not
only in Tskhinvali. In hours it spread to Tbilisi, Gori, Poti, Senaki
and many other places. This is the nightmare scenario we are facing
in the South Caucasus, which is why everybody must work seriously to
avoid this scenario at all costs

Does the LINKS have any plans to restore a dialogue between Azerbaijani
and Armenian parliamentarians?

We successfully facilitated this dialogue between 2002-2008 in the
framework of the South Caucasus Parliamentary Initiative. It was
an important confidence building measure for the whole region. Last
year we were in contact with the two sides but it was not possible
to have a meeting. We work on the basis of consensus so all sides
need to be ready. LINKS remains committed to help with this process
if all sides agree. In the meantime we are exploring other ways in
which the political dialogue in the region can continue.