TURKEY ‘HAS NOT YET EATEN THE FISH, BUT IT HAS ALREADY SMEARED THE PAN’
ArmInfo
2010-04-27 15:32:00
Interview of a political expert Levon Melik-Shahnazaryan with ArmInfo
News Agency
Mr. Shahnazaryan, what steps may Ankara take in retaliation for the
Armenian president’s decision to suspend the Protocol ratification
process?
The decision of Armenia’s President Serzh Sargsyan on freezing of the
Protocols ratification process was quite a thought-out and justified
step. Along with it, Armenia’s decision leaves all the chances for
Turkey to make corrections in its foreign policy. Absence of radical
changes in the foreign policy of Ankara towards the South Caucasus
will lead it to failure and deprive Turkey of all the chances for
leadership in the region. President Sargsyan clearly specified
Armenia’s foreign political vector, according to which the republic
will never refuse fighting for recognition of the NKR and assurance of
security of its borders and population, and will pursue the efforts
on international recognition of the Armenian Genocide. So, having
suspended the Protocols ratification process but having not closed
the door to Turkey, Armenia got out of the US pressure having not
yielded an inch. Naturally, one cannot but welcome this decision of
the Armenian president.
What role does Azerbaijan actually play in Turkey’s uncompromising
attitude in the Armenian-Turkish process?
Azerbaijan actually plays quite a serious role in Turkey’s
uncompromising attitude in the Armenian-Turkish process, as Azerbaijan
is a very serious real factor with certain weight in Turkey.
Unfortunately, this factor has not yet been studied in Armenia, though
Azerbaijan plays a defining role in Turkey’s foreign policy in many
respects. Noteworthy, the influence of Azerbaijan on Ankara’s foreign
and especially internal policy was created just by the Turkish internal
propaganda. After that, the Turkish electorate started treating the
"brothers", living in Azerbaijan, quite compassionately.
As a result, Turks fell into their own trap of which they cannot get
out so far.
Does it especially show up on the threshold of parliamentary election
in Turkey in 2011?
Actually, the position of the ruling Justice and Development party
is very shaky on the threshold of 2011 election in Turkey, as the
party’s actions, aimed at further Islamization of the state, are too
negatively perceived by followers of Ataturk’s ideas. This especially
concerns the western and European part of Turkey. Along with it,
Azerbaijanis also use their influence on Ergenekon’s radicals. For
example, as far as I know, two generals from this organization,
having been in the wanted list on "Ergenekon" case, found shelter in
Azerbaijan. Moreover, a religious organization of Jafarites functions
in the territory of Turkey quite efficiently, and major part of its
adherents consists of ethnic Azerbaijanis. Naturally, Azerbaijan
wields a significant influence on the policy of this semi-sectarian
direction of Islam in Turkey. Finally, a Kurdish factor also exists.
Kurds are known to dominate among the Azerbaijani leadership having
close ties to the leadership of the Kurdish Workers Party and leaders
of the Kurdish communities in Turkey. In addition, Azerbaijan renders
regular financial assistance to the Kurdish rebels in Turkey. The key
"sponsors" of Kurdish radicals are Minister of the Emergency Situations
of Azerbaijan Kamaleddin Heydarov, Head of Azersun Holding Abdulbari
Gezal, Baku Mayor Hajibala Abutalibov and other officials, he said. The
expert said that all this takes place with the knowledge of President
Aliyev whose Kurdish origin is a fact of common knowledge. In fact,
all these factors have made the political future of the Justice and
Development Party, Abdulah Gul and Recep Erdogan dependent on loyalty
with Baku. Turkish elite did not even think of preconditions when
signing the Protocols with Armenia in Zurich.
Ankara hoped to sucker Baku. However, Turkey’s explanations did not
have proper effect on Azerbaijan and Ankara was reluctant to set
preconditions to Armenia already few days after signing the protocols.
Which specific aims did Turkey pursue having referred to the process
with Armenia and then having set preconditions?
Turkey, signing the protocols with Armenia, had several political
tasks. First, Ankara had a purpose to fully enter the political
field of the South Caucasus, to clean it for itself and in this way
to remove the third force in the person of the West from the region.
Moreover, Turkey was striving to finally get rid of the sword of
Damocles of responsibility for the committed Armenian genocide.
Opening of the Armenian-Turkish border would remove one of the main
obstacles for Turkey’s joining the European Union and would enhance the
positions of Justice and Development Party of Turkey. Finally, in case
of ratification of the Protocols and opening of the border Turkey would
automatically turn into the key monopolist of the transit territory
for transportation of Central Asian and Azerbaijani hydrocarbon
(oil and gas) to the West. Such were Turkey’s plans before mediation
of Baku, after which the pre-conditions were added, which support
the aggressive interests of Azerbaijan. This has brought the whole
process to naught. The renewed plans of Turkey did not meet Armenia’s
views. In fact, President Sargsyan’s decree froze the ratification
procedure. oÕÄÑ ÐÏ ×ÓÅÍÕ, President of Armenia had discussed the
given decision with the OSCE MG co-chair-states beforehand. In fact,
Turkey miscalculated when pining hopes that Armenia would yield to
pressure by Washington, the major "architect" of the Armenian-Turkish
normalization. In addition, the new relations of Russia and Ukraine
make useless construction of the South Stream gas pipeline via the
territorial waters of Turkey. Actually, Turkey has not yet eaten the
fish, but it has already smeared the pan. And all this was because
of Azerbaijan, Turkey’s illegally born state.
Foreign Minister of Iran Manouchehr Mottaki has recently claimed of
his country’s intention to mediate in the Karabakh settlement. May
this statement be considered like the upcoming strengthening of Iran
as a regional power?
I said long ago about the necessity and expediency of Iran’s
participation in the OSCE Minsk Group on Karabakh settlement. Iran is
Armenia’s strategic partner and ally. Much witnesses for the benefit
of this partnership, and first of all, cognation of civilizations
and cultures of the Armenian and Iranian peoples, commonness of
history as well as historical memory of Iran about the Trans Caucasus
territories. But Teheran is also the recognized world leader of Shiite
version of Islam, the main religion of Azerbaijan. Undoubtedly,
Teheran is concerned about peaceful settlement of the Karabakh
conflict and would become a sample of the true peacekeeper. But the
seeming agreement of Azerbaijan to Iran’s mediation in the Karabakh
conflict settlement is just of speculative nature. Having agreed on
Mottaki’s offer to foreign ministers of Armenia and Azerbaijan to meet
in Teheran, Baku simply blackmailed Washington hinting at possible
changing of its foreign policy course. Moreover, Azerbaijan is trying
to affect Turkey’s position in establishment of relation with Armenia
which is still going on. "If you do not support me, I will go Iran" –
here is a rather transparent hint of Baku to the politicians of Ankara.
And what about Baku-Tehran relations?
Iran-Azerbaijan relations are still rather complicated and indistinct
in both political and economic aspect. Since its declaration Azerbaijan
has been conducting a clearly expressed anti-Iranian policy. This
policy is expressed in uncovered territorial claims to its southern
neighbour, incitement of the Turkish-speaking population of Iran to
separatism, maintenance of friendly relations with enemies of Iran,
etc. The unresolved problems of ethnic, territorial and even religious
nature are available between Iran and Azerbaijan. I am sure that
stemming from these realities Armenian Foreign Ministry treated the
"consent" of Azerbaijan for the Iranian mediation rather coolly.
Moreover, Armenia-Iran relations keep on being much more friendly
and transparent than Iran-Azerbaijan relations. "We have just ignored
the regular adventure of Baku and I think it is a right and weighed
decision.
David Stepanyan, April 26. ArmInfo.