ANALYSIS: ARMENIA-TURKEY PEACE COLLAPSE FANS CAUCASUS TENSION

Kyiv Post
87/
April 29 2010
Ukraine

TBILISI, April 29 (Reuters) – The collapse of a plan to end a
century of hostility between Armenia and Turkey may have its biggest
repercussions in the dispute over Nagorno-Karabakh, a flashpoint near
a corridor bringing oil and gas to the West.

The peace initiative between two of the players in a complex web of
relationships in the south Caucasus crumbled last week when Armenia
suspended ratification of the accord.

Observers said the pact, which would have established diplomatic
relations and opened their land border, was already deadlocked as
neither parliament had approved the deal.

But its suspension has left another, potentially explosive issue
hanging in the balance — the fate of Nagorno-Karabakh, a mountainous
region lost by Azerbaijan to Armenian-backed forces in the bloodiest
of the ethnic conflicts that accompanied the 1991 collapse of the
Soviet Union.

Many had hoped normalised relations between Armenia and Turkey would
help unlock talks on the enclave, which has run its own affairs with
the support of Armenia since splitting away from Azerbaijan. It is
connected to Armenia by a slim corridor.

Azerbaijan, a close Turkish ally and energy trading partner, saw the
accord as a betrayal, potentially robbing it of leverage over Armenia
in negotiations on Nagorno-Karabakh.

Analysts say the suspension will do little to soothe Azeri concerns.

"The process has left Azerbaijan isolated, and effectively pulled the
rug from under its foreign policy framework," said Svante Cornell of
the Central Asia-Caucasus Institute.

"It also leaves Armenia’s leadership weakened. thus — more frustration
and more insecurity, the last thing the region needs," he said.

The deal agreed a year ago was the closest Turkey and Armenia had
come to moving past the World War One mass killing of Armenians by
Ottoman Turks that has poisoned their relationship.

The United States and Russia both backed the accord as a means of
stabilising the south Caucasus and encouraging greater trade and
prosperity.

Turkey stood to reap diplomatic kudos in the West as it bids for
membership of the European Union. Landlocked Armenia would have
benefited from the reopening of its western frontier, closed by Turkey
in 1993 in solidarity with Azerbaijan.

Washington said last week the deal was not dead, but more time might
be needed to "create some new momentum".

But diplomats say they see little chance of Turkey dropping its demand
for Armenian concessions on Nagorno-Karabakh, or of Armenia complying
in exchange for an open frontier.

STRAINED AZERI-TURKISH TIES

The peace overtures have severely strained ties between Turkey and
Azerbaijan, affecting negotiations on gas supplies key to the planned
Nabucco pipeline, which aims to bypass Russia to supply gas to the
European Union.

Azerbaijan late last year struck deals to sell more gas to Russia,
whose South Stream pipeline project is the main rival to Nabucco. such
deals will draw supplies away from Nabucco and make it harder for
the project to get off the ground.

In the belief that Washington was the main driver of the
Turkish-Armenian thaw, Azerbaijan this month cancelled joint military
exercises with the United States and threatened to reconsider their
"strategic relationship".

"Long-term peace and normalisation of relations in the south Caucasus
cannot be achieved by rewarding aggression and by excluding the
region’s strategically most important country," Novruz Mammadov,
chief foreign policy adviser to Azeri President Ilham Aliyev, wrote
last week.

An estimated 30,000 people died in the Nagorno-Karabakh war before
a ceasefire was agreed in 1994. More than 15 years of mediation by
Russia, the United States and France have yielded a loose framework of
"basic principles", but no peace deal.

Snipers and landmines on the frontline meanwhile pick off young Azeri
and Armenian conscripts on a regular basis.

Intensified negotiations last year between Aliyev and Armenian
President Serzh Sarksyan fuelled hope that some sort of solution
might be close.

The International Crisis Group thinktank warned this month of a
threat from "domestically entrenched maximalist forces" opposed to
a Nagorno-Karabakh deal in Armenia and Azerbaijan.

"If the talks fail now, Armenia and Azerbaijan may find themselves
trapped in a spiralling military escalation which will have
unpredictable consequences for both countries and for wider regional
security," ICG analyst Tabib Huseynov wrote.

Thanks to its elevated position and heavy fortifications, military
experts say Nagorno-Karabakh would be difficult to retake. But that
has not stopped Azerbaijan from spending heavily on its military and
frequently threatening to try.

"The Azerbaijan army has all capabilities to hit any target on the
territory of Armenia if necessary," Defence Minister Safar Abiyev
said last week.

A resumption in hostilities could quickly suck in other powers in a
region criss-crossed by energy pipelines.

Russia’s largest military base outside its borders is located in
armenia, and the two countries are close allies.