PERSPECTIVES: ANALYSTS ON STALLED ARMENIA-TURKEY PROCESS AND PROSPECTS
Gayane Lazarian

ArmeniaNow reporter
Analysis | 30.04.10 | 12:04

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The botched Armenian-Turkish protocols are the product of the 2007
secret negotiations, says an expert in Yerevan with knowledge of
regional politics.

"In those negotiations Turkey agreed to separate concessions and to
improvement of relations with Armenia irrespective of relations with
Azerbaijan. It is another question that our authorities themselves
stated this whole process, which surprised the Turkish side," says
independent political analyst Yervand Bozoyan, who has opposed such
a course of normalization from the very beginning. According to him,
the Turkish side has taken advantage of the Armenian side’s weakness,
bringing up the issue of Nagorno-Karabakh as a precondition, which
is absent in the text of the protocols.

"They changed their position based on the course of the process.

However, weakness of one side in the negotiations also spoils the
other side, from which the whole process has suffered. This is the
most tragic element of the negotiations," he says.

The analyst says that in the issue of Nagorno-Karabakh Armenia cannot
make concessions, because for Armenia these are not territorial
matters, but a matter of security.

"If for Azerbaijan it is a loss of land, then for us it is a matter of
state security," says Bozoyan. "I always cite the example of Israel,
which has seen four wars in 70 years. The Israeli elite have understood
that if they make concessions in principle in the matter of Jerusalem,
then other concessions will be demanded and so on, they understood
where the limit of those concessions was."

Another leading expert, Karen Bekaryan, says, sarcastically, that
if Turkey deems Azerbaijan so important, then Armenia should perhaps
talk Karabakh directly with Turkey.

Bekaryan, who is Chairman of the European Integration organization and
Director of Radiolur Information Programs of Public Radio, presents
one of several scenarios.

"We should sit and negotiate directly with Turkey, get a few regions
in Western Armenia and think about withdrawing from territories
in the security zone [in Karabakh]. If it is an implausible
scenario for Turkey, in that case Turkey has nothing to do in the
Armenian-Azerbaijani process. And it is here that the red line lies
for Armenian diplomacy," says Bekaryan, describing a highly unlikely
scenario to illustrate why Turkish aspirations in the Karabakh issue
are unacceptable.

Unlike Bozoyan, who did not welcome the format of the latest
Armenian-Turkish negotiations, Bekaryan was among its proponents. The
expert says, however, he does not accept sentiments often expressed by
the Turkish elite that he says have hampered the negotiating process.

Commenting on the recent statement by Turkish Prime Minister Recep
Tayyip Erdogan in which he threatened to expel illegal Armenian
migrants from Turkey, Bekaryan terms it a ‘racist statement’ by all
human rights standards.

"It would be a different thing if he said that they were starting to
deal with illegal migrants. I’m not sure much has changed in Turkey
since 1915," he says.

Bekaryan also described as a threat of use of force Turkish Foreign
Minister Ahmet Davutoglu’s statement in which the latter tried to show
why Turkey’s reluctance to ratify the deal with Armenia is influenced
by the unresolved nature of the Karabakh conflict. Davutoglu, in
particular, portrayed a scenario in which another Armenian-Azerbaijan
war starts two months after the Turkish-Armenian border is opened.

"Should we close it again?" Davutoglu queried in one of recent media
interviews.

"There is such a thing as a threat of use of force in international
law. What he [Davutoglu] said was the threat of using force. With
this statement, Davutoglu supports Azerbaijan," he says.

Expert Bozoyan does not expect any essential changes till the next
presidential election. "I think the next authorities that will come
to replace the current ones will start Armenian-Turkish relations
from scratch," he says.

Bekaryan, meanwhile, thinks that while on the state level Armenia
should take its time, then dialogue on the level of societies should
be boosted.