HULIQ.com, SC
May 2 2010

Azerbaijan Can Use U.S. Puerto Rico Model For Karabakh Peace

This week the Congress of the United States passed the HR 2499
allowing Puerto Rico a referendum on its future status, but only few
saw parallel Azerbaijan’s negotiations with Armenia and U.S. Puerto
Rico developments. Yet, HR 2499 may also open a door for Azerbaijan to
look at its future differently, from a different point of view.

Azerbaijan has been negotiating with Armenia over Nagorno Karabakh
Republic for already 16 years. The issue is somewhat similar to
Kosovo’s case. Like Kosovo, the Armenian majority of Nagorno Karabakh
took a decision and referendum to declare the region as an independent
country. Azerbaijan sent troops, Karabakh defended itself. Armenia
sided with Karabakh. Nagorno Karabakh’s army liberated territories
adjuscent to its borders so the Army of Azerbaijan stops bombing from
those territories the cities and villages of Nagorno Karabakh.
Azerbaijan signed a ceasefire about 16 years ago and negotiations
continue since then.

There is no result so far. Russian, French and U.S. mediators have put
forward the Madrid principles for the conflict resolution which calls
on return of territories to Azerbaijan (except the land corridor
connecting Karabakh with Armenia), return of refugees and a referendum
on the final status of Nagorno Karabkh. Azerbaijan has generally
agreed, but has a problem with referendum fearing it will lead to the
independence of Nagorno Karabakh. Armenia has said the principles are
a base for negotiations, but the final political status of Nagorno
Karabakh and the date of the referendum should be clearly defined.
Almost one year has passed since those Madrid Principles have been
disclosed, but the process is not moving.

In the meanwhile an entire generation has come forward in Nagorno
Karabakh that does not know what it means to leave under Azerbaijan.

* Karabakh Marks Anniversary of Referendum on Independence

No Return Under Azerbaijan

In light of Azerbaijan’s past oppressions of the Armenians in Nagorno
Karabakh and its present bellicose rhetoric Nagorno Karabakh says
there is no way they want to return to leave in one country with
Azerbaijan. Azerbaijan fails to recognize Nagorno Karabakh’s right to
self determination and stresses it will never agree with a loss of a
territory. Regular war threats, coming from Azerbaijan’s president and
the top leadership, further reinforces the resolve of the people of
the Nagorno Karabakh Republic to leave independently from Azerbaijan.
This has become easier, especially after the case of Kosovo, Abkhazia
and now the latest development related to Puerto Rico.

The Problem: How To Make a Case With People of Azerbaijan

Sometimes one wonders if Azerbaijan’s president understands that
politically there is no way they can subject Nagorno Karabakh under
Azerbaijan’s control. In reality, war is not an option either. It has
not solved problems where people have longed for freedom and self
determination. Thus the problem may be how does the current top
leadership of Azerbaijan explain to its people that the government
agrees to the referendum in Nagorno Karabakh about it’s future. One
cannot, but agree, that this is a very difficult task to do, to make a
case with your own people that there is a change in course now. This
is where U.S. Congress’ decision on Puerto Rico may come handy as a
recipe.

Two Referendums May Be Needed

Everyone so far thinks of the referendum in Nagorno Karabakh as a key
to solution. However, would things become easier for Azerbaijan and
easier for it to come to an agreement if there was the option of the
second referendum on the table? Let’s look at Puerto Rico.

Puerto Rico has been a U.S. semi autonomous territory for 112 years.
This week the U.S. Congress adopted the HR 2499 allow the people of
Puerto Rico to conduct a referendum to decide if they want a change in
their current status. This last sentence is very important. We are not
talking about if they want independence or to become one of the states
in USA, but only "if they want to change their current status." Now,
if the people of Puerto Rico says Yes, that means yes they want to
change their status. ONLY THEN will be constitution of Puerto Rico be
changed and the SECOND referendum will be conducted. The second
referendum will have 4 options: maintain the same status, become a
U.S. State, become sovereign maintaining a partnership with the U.S.
and finally independence.

What if the HR 2499 can also provide a key to the resolution of the
Nagorno Karabakh conflict. If the problem with Azerbaijan’s leadership
is that they have realized that Nagorno Karabakh can’t be back under
Azerbaijan’s control, but have a difficult time to explain that to
their people, then this two-referendum models can make the case and
bring about a breakthrough in the negotiation process.

In any case Azerbaijan has agreed to give Nagorno Karabakh the highest
autonomy, but only if its territorial integrity is kept intact.
Whatever the final solution of the problem there will be a certain
type of change in Nagorno Karabakh’s final status then it was 20 years
ago. This will allow the parliament of Azerbaijan to take a similar
resolution agreeing for Nagorno Karabakh to conduct a referendum if
they want to maintain or change their status. At this point there is
no talk of independence. The question can be something like this. Do
you want to maintain your status or make a change. If the majority
wants to change their status, then the second referendum may kick-in.
Then the question will be what status do you want for the future of
Nagorno Karabakh and there can be already those 4 choices, or
whichever choices the people of Nagorno Karabakh will make.

The thing is that for Azerbaijan it’s easier to agree to the second
referendum and make a case with its people if the first referendum has
already been conducted. To agree for the first referendum Azerbaijan’s
parliament has many good reasons because no one wants to see this no
war no peace situation to continue dragging and reaching to the next
generation.

In our opinion this pathway is doable for Azerbaijan and may lead to
the determination of the final status of Nagorno Karabakh’s Republic.
Armenian president on April 5th said the problem can be solved "in
hours" if Azerbaijan fully respects the right of self determination of
Nagorno Karabakh.

Otherwise, if there is the precedence of Kosovo and the United States
is opening a potential door for Puerto Rico’s full independence how
will Azerbaijan continue to make a case for Nagorno Karabakh to come
back under its control. If Azerbaijan continues to speak in the
language of threats then it clearly fails to see the global dynamic
where the rights of people’s self-determination is being clearly
respected

The question is will Armenia agree to this pathway, resolving the
matter in a two-referendum model. That answer we don’t know.

Look for Peace Not Territory

The time has come for both Azerbaijan and Armenia look beyond Nagorno
Karabakh. The region is in need of peace and trust. This is what needs
to be built between the two nations. Nagorno Karabakh’s Republic,
which has already established all the attributes of democratic
governance, is not a peace of territorial dispute between Armenia and
Azerbaijan. In Nagorno Karabakh people are looking for peace and
stability. In Azerbaijan the leadership is looking for restoring
country’s territorial integrity even at the cost of war.

The conflict would have been solved very quickly if Azerbaijan would
simply understand and respect people’s right to self determination.
This is where the mediators could to a better work trying to show the
better fruits of this option. Turkey desperately wants to be a player
in the region. Perhaps it’s time for Turkey to try to convince the
leadership in Azerbaijan to look beyond Nagorno Karabakh and adopt new
approaches for buildling peace and restoring trust, not the
territorial integrity, which is so 20th century.

Written by Armen Hareyan
HULIQ.com