AZERBAIJANI EXPERT: SERZH SARGSYAN DOES NOT CONTROL THE SITUATION

Today
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May 3 2010
Azerbaijan

Day.Az interview with expert at the Azerbaijan-based Lider TV Tofiq
Abbasov.

As of late, the Armenian diaspora has stepped up efforts to push
"Armenian genocide" bills through the parliaments worldwide. In your
opinion, may the diaspora achieve this?

The diaspora has stepped up efforts as it wants to show Yerevan
its importance and capacity. In order not to lose its influence
within Armenia, diaspora offers its services to obscure the issue of
liberation of the occupied Azerbaijani lands.

Moreover, Armenians show high activity in a attempt to gain support
of international community and thus demonstrate to neighbors that a
number of states support Armenia in its withdrawal from the isolation
and in the so-called "genocide".

In this regard, political idealism of the Armenian leaders prevails
over pragmatism. After all, our neighbors need real action to end
this isolation.

Three so-called subjects are involved in all processes related to
the so-called Armenian issue. These are Armenia itself, Karabakh
separatists and the diaspora. When it is time to take drastic
decisions, they will start sorting out relationships and blackmail
each-other. The reason is that they intend to share benefits of
these solutions.

There is a real chaos among current players. This cannot but be a
matter of concern, since the lack of true unity among them hinders
important processes.

Unfortunately, in this situation Sargsyan does not show principled
position, because he does not control the situation. He follows the
tastes of others. Therefore, the Diaspora mobilizes resources to
demonstrate its influence to Yerevan and make it clear for Sargsyan
that he must reckon with it.

This whole mess is not in favor of the peace process and places a
heavy burden on the entire region.

Russian President Dmitry Medvedev will trip to Turkey on May 11. In
your opinion, what issues will top agenda of talks in Turkey?

I think the agenda will cover energy projects, because Turkey
and Russia have carefully co-ordinated the "South Stream" project
and agreed on possible new transits. Regional problems, issues of
Nagorno-Karabakh conflict and Armenian-Turkish relations will also
be discussed.

But Russia is not very interested in reconciliation between Armenia
and Turkey, because it is not going to lose its dominant position
over Yerevan. So, I do not rule out that regional conflicts will be
discussed in the usual sluggish mode.

In addition, there is another important issue related to the future
of the Black Sea basin. Neither Russia nor Turkey want the status quo
to change as it has an advantage for fleets of these countries in the
water area. The two countries will coordinate approaches to ensure
that under no circumstances naval compounds of powerful nations enter
this area.

In your view, how this visit may impact the Armenia-Turkey
normalization and Nagorno-Karabakh conflict settlement?

I do not think there is particular progress in this issue. Though in
recent years the Americans have been too active in the Turkish-Armenian
format, Russia’s task is to delay the reconciliation.

In principle, Russia is not so prone to ensure that the two countries
make peace. Once Armenian-Turkish border is opened, America will
strengthen foothold in Armenia. Secondly, pro-Western forces in
Armenia will become active. Russia will by all means try so that the
Turkish-Armenian border remains closed.

With regard to settlement of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict, if the
current Turkish government is really interested in addressing this
problem, Ankara and Moscow have prerequisites for the effective
cooperation in this matter. Together, they will be able to make
the Armenian side to start moving in the direction of the Madrid
principles.

How do you comment on Iran’s peacemaking initiatives in the settlement
of Armenian-Azerbaijani Nagorno-Karabakh conflict?

Iran has demonstrated its activity many times trying to secure
political gains on the foreign policy front. Besides, it does not
want to have tensions along its northern borders. But it seems to me
that Iran needs to reconsider its relations with Armenia to ensure
success of the initiative and win Azerbaijan’s trust.

Iran should have put pressure on Armenia long time ago. But it has not
done it yet, because the West encouraged Iran to help Armenia. This
theme, incidentally, has consistently existed in the format of those
agreements that Iranians and Western politicians have exchanged.

As to the future of this initiative, I think, there is little reason
for optimism. Neither the West nor Russia would agree to see the
Nagorno-Karabakh conflict to be settled without their participation.

They will not allow it happen because failure of the OSCE Minsk Group
to mediate will be a reverse side of the coin.