IF THERE WAS EVER TO BE ANOTHER WAR BETWEEN ARMENIA AND AZERBAIJAN THIS IS GOING TO BE A MUCH MORE DESTRUCTIVE AND CRUEL WAR THAN WE HAVE EVER SEEN IN THE CAUCASUS
Oksana Musaelyan

ArmInfo
2010-05-03 15:58:00

Interview of Dennnis Sammut, executive director of links with ArmInfo
news agency

Officials of Azerbaijan vocally threatened Armenia of the risk of war.

In particularly, in the course of the recent meetings with the
representatives of NATO PA delegation, the Defence Minister Safar
Abiyev stressed "that Azerbaijan could hit all areas in Nagorno
Karabakh and in Armenia proper. If Armenia decided to attack Azerbaijan
‘s energy production facilities, Azerbaijan would strike Armenia
‘s nuclear facility". These threats of Azerbaijani minister sounds
like a description of a certain plan of a new war. How real, in your
opinion, is a renewed war in Karabakh?

It is very unfortunate that officials on both sides keep making
harsh warlike statements at a time when we know that the Presidents
are engaged in very delicate discussions on the possible peaceful
settlement of the conflict.

However there is one aspect of General Abiyev’s statement that I find
very important. He reminds us that if there was ever to be another
war between Armenia and Azerbaijan this is going to be a much more
destructive and cruel war than we have ever seen in the Caucasus. Both
countries have modern sophisticated weaponry and every part of the
territory of the two countries will be effected. In August 2008 we
saw a small example of what this means in the short war between
Russia and Georgia. The fighting may have started in Tskhinvali,
but soon it was on the outskirts of Tbilis, in Gori, Poti, Senaki
and elsewhere. That is why we need to focus on peace.

In your mind, what is the reason Azerbaijani officials claimed their
threats of war vocally to NATO delegation. Do they count on NATO’s
support to Azerbaijan in case it starts war in Karabakh?

NATO officials on many occasions have made it clear that they
support the peaceful resolution of the Karabakh conflict. Azerbaijan,
like Armenia, is a valued member of the NATO Partnership for peace
programme. In that sense it is natural for the Azerbaijan Defence
Minister to meet and express his concerns to a visiting NATO
delegation.

Armenia-Turkey process. Do you think there are any perspective for
any progress of the Armenia-Turkey normalization process considering
the recent developments, in particular Ankara to consistently bonding
the process with the issue of Karabakh?

I think both Armenia and Turkey remain committed to the process of
normalisation of relations. The reason is very simple. It is in the
interest of both countries that these relations are normalised, that
diplomatic relations are established and that the borders are open..

This does not mean that it is easy for either country to navigate the
complicated domestic political situation that exists in both Armenia
and Turkey. The baggage of history is also very heavy.

Ofcourse the Karabakh issue, even if it is not directly connected,
is in the background and it is not realistic to say one can simply
ignore it. That is why if we have progress in the Karabakh peace
negotiations this will help the Turkish-Armenian rapproachment.

How would you comment on the President of Armenia freezing the
ratification of the Protocols in the Parliament. Is this a constructive
step from the Armenian side? Will it somehow have an effect on the
process generally?

I read the President’s speech with great interest. It was a calm and
level headed speech even though the topics were very emotional. I
welcome that. This is no time for hysterical statements. The speech
was welcomed by the US, Russia, the European Union and others because
it showed a constructive Armenian approach to very difficult problems.

The work that has been done in the last two years should not be wasted.

What impact could EU have on the Turkish-Armenia relation in this
situation?

The European Union is increasingly involved in the South Caucasus
region. A few days ago Commissioner Stefan Fule, the EU Commissioner
for Enlargement and Neighbourhood Policy, when addressing the European
Parliament, said, to use his own words, that the "EU was ready to step
up a gear" in its relationship with the region. During and after the
Georgia-Russia War in August 2008 the EU realised that what happens in
the South Caucasus can have implications for the whole continent. The
EU has welcomed and supported the Turkish-Armenian normalisation of
relations process and has tried to help. But in the end the decision
is with the Turkish and Armenian leaders.

Turkey always claims, that foreign Parliament’s decision on the
Armenian Genocide resolution have a negative impact on the relations
of Armenia-Turkish relations. What in this respect does Israeli Knesset
motion to hold hearings on the Armenia genocide mean for Turkey?

Turkish-Israeli relations are even more complicated than
Turkish-Armenian relations. It is not in Armenia’s interest to get
embroiled in that process.