TURKEY’S AND RUSSIA’S ROLE IN RESOLVING NAGORNO-KARABAKH CONFLICT
Today
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May 5 2010
Azerbaijan
"Russia seeks to be the main sponsor and guarantor of resolution of
the Karabakh conflict," Azerbaijani political analyst Zardusht Alizade
said commenting on Russian President Dmitry Medvedev’s upcoming visit
to Turkey.
The analyst believes Russia pushes policies to have an exceptional
ability to influence the conflicting parties that have always been
a pretext for intervention in the ongoing processes in the region.
"Russia and other countries are unlikely able to influence Azerbaijan
because the country is financially independent unlike Armenia, whose
economy is entirely dependent on Russia and financial assistance from
the West," the analyst explained.
"It’s hard to say if Turkey will assist with this policy of Russia if
Moscow offers Ankara to calm down Yerevan’s policy seeking recognition
of "genocide". Though Turkey is a fraternal country for Azerbaijan,
the country has its own national interests. In 1920s, Turkey assisted
Russia to strengthen its foothold in the South Caucasus. Now, the
interests of Ankara and Moscow come together on the Karabakh conflict."
"Being an ally of Russia, Turkey can get a project "South Stream",
defuse a fictional "Armenian genocide", restore relations with Armenia
and become one of the guarantors of the process of Karabakh conflict
settlement," the analyst underscored.
According to the analyst, while parties directly involved in the
conflict fail to reach an agreement, any country may well feather
its nest on this matter.
Alizade says the most real option is that Armenian withdraws from five
occupied regions followed by an international peacekeeping operation
for the return of Azerbaijani refugees and reconstruction of damaged
infrastructure in these areas.
Armenia will delay withdrawal from two more Azerbaijani regions. In
exchange for this, Azerbaijan will be offered to undertake a commitment
not to use force, to negotiate with Karabakh Armenians and deploy
peacekeepers in Nagorno-Karabakh. Naturally, Russia will try to
deploy its troops there as in case of Abkhazia and South Ossetia,
says the analyst.
"Government led by Serzh Sargsyan, which holds power only at
the expense of "the Karabakh card", can accept peace only if the
framework agreement notes that Nagorno Karabakh will not be a part of
Azerbaijan. Otherwise, he may be asked why he overthrew Ter-Petrosyan,
who did not insist on independence of Karabakh from Azerbaijan,"
he said.
Alizade said, that the transitional status is intended to provide
security in the self-determination process of Nagorno Karabakh. But
Armenians seek to transform a transitional status to the form of
Karabakh’s preparation for independence and subsequent "miatsum"
while Azerbaijan says, that the transitional status is a transition
to a high degree of autonomy within Azerbaijan.
Interestingly, the preamble of the Madrid principles enumerates
conditions: the territorial integrity and right to self and
renunciation of the right use of force, says the analyst.
If positions of conflicting parties see no significant changes,
the negotiations may take even more years, Alizade noted.