DMITRY MEDVEDEV’S VISIT TO ANKARA AND THE FUTURE OF RUSSIA-TURKEY RELATIONS
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15:3205/05/2010
Director of Turkish Centre for International Relations and Strategic
Analysis Sinan Ogan’s answers to ValdaiClub.com questions.
1) What do people expect from the Russian president’s visit in May?
The most important expectation from Russian President Dmitry Medvedev’s
visit is the signing of strategic cooperation documents that will be a
new and important step in relations. It is likely that such a document
will be signed during this visit. It is possible to increase the scope
of this agreement to include, for example: the signing of an agreement
on building a nuclear power plant in Turkey, making progress on moving
to a visa free regime between Turkey and the Russian Federation,
including the PKK terrorist group on Russia’s list of proscribed
organizations, the resolution of the Nagorno-Karabakh issue and
Russia’s subsequent assistance in the Turkey-Armenia normalization
process and the establishment of a high level strategic cooperation
council between Turkey and Russia. Naturally, Russian petrol and
natural gas enterprises’ investment in Turkey is also one of the most
important subjects that will come up. Equally, regional questions
especially about Iraq and Iran will also feature on the agenda.
2) What does the future of Russia-Turkey relations look like?
Relations between Russia and Turkey have their peculiarities. The
Russian and Turkish economies complement each other rather than vying
for position like the economies of Turkey and China. While the Turkish
and Chinese economies are rivals in a wide range of fields, the Turkish
and Russian economies complement each other. Russia has raw materials,
energy and the defense industry, all of which Turkey needs, and Turkey
has what Russia needs, such as for example: the construction sector,
food, textiles and consumer products.
Consequently, the future of relations between the two states evolves in
accordance with the way these two countries’ economies and geographies
complement each other.
3) What are the priorities in energy cooperation between Russia
and Turkey?
Russia supplies 65% of Turkey’s natural gas demand and about 30%-40% of
its demand for petrol. These two countries maintain active cooperation
on energy matters. There are no obstacles to the improvement of energy
cooperation and the evolution of this relationship with each passing
day. The nuclear energy sphere in particular is one of the biggest
potential areas for cooperation. In addition to that, there is a
lot of room for cooperation on a wide range of fields such as: the
realization of the Samsun-Ceyhan Crude Oil Pipeline construction, the
realization of Blue Stream 2, the Nabucco and South Stream projects,
the construction of new oil refineries, the construction of natural
gas storage plants, the joint search for oil and natural gas in the
Black Sea region, the participation of Russian companies in natural
gas distribution tenders, and in the power plants and distribution
tenders in Turkey.
4) What are your expectations for and observations on relations
between Europe, Russia and Turkey?
Until now, the West, especially the USA, thought of the Turkish-Russian
relationship as follows: cooperation in non-strategic sectors such as
tourism and commerce are fine, but cooperation in strategic sectors
like energy, the military and so on was not.
However, it seems this phase has now passed. Especially when we take
into account Europe’s energy security needs it is clear Europe supports
good relations between the two countries on this issue.
Russia supports Turkey`s membership of the European Union, too.